If Biden won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
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2026
39%
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If Biden won the election, will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than 2022?

This market will resolve YES if the 2025 democracy index for the United States released by the EIU is higher than 7.85, NO if it's less than or equal to 7.85

Resolves NA if Biden didnt win the 2024 presidential election

Economic Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

Compare the price against this market to estimate if Biden being elected will be positive for Democracy in the US



credit to @PlasmaBallin for inspiring this question

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Similar market with a couple more indexes and different end year:

🟢 /jBosc/if-biden-wins-will-the-us-score-low 🟢

predicts YES

Opportunity here somewhere somehow for somebody

Speaking only for myself, a Trump loss is a necessary but not sufficient condition to increase democracy in the US, and the Democratic Party, despite the bazillion beefs to be had with it, is the most realistic vehicle to defeat or restrain Trumpism, and Biden is the most pragmatic available candidate for that party to do that -- but this is way more conditionals than captured in this question.

@ClubmasterTransparent I agree with this, but it's a lot of "if"s beyond just if Biden wins. As I mentioned below, it's been getting less democratic every year since this indicator was first introduced in 2006, and there are unfortunately not many signs of the trend reversing.

predicts YES

@PlasmaBallin agree, don't get me started.

Unlikely to happen regardless of the winner, since the U.S.'s democracy index has never once increased since the statistic was first created. But I do think it's certainly more likely to happen if Biden stays as president than if Trump gets elected.

@PlasmaBallin if the price settles to a probability way too low, I'll adjust the target to make it more interesting

@PlasmaBallin current price is near 50%, would you expect that to be much lower?

predicts NO

@AmmonLam I would expect it to be lower, as it now is. Not sure how much lower it should be, though. There's still a chance that we're end the end of the downward trend.