If Biden won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
If Biden won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
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1kṀ968resolved Jul 21
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If Biden won the election, will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than 2022?
This market will resolve YES if the 2025 democracy index for the United States released by the EIU is higher than 7.85, NO if it's less than or equal to 7.85
Resolves NA if Biden didnt win the 2024 presidential election
Economic Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
Compare the price against this market to estimate if Biden being elected will be positive for Democracy in the US
credit to @PlasmaBallin for inspiring this question
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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