Will the United States exist as a stable, independent democracy by 2100?

1kṀ1177

2051

51%

chance

ALL

Will the U.S still be around by the end of the century, or will we have gone the way of the dodo?

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

82% chance

Will the US be a democracy in 2040?

81% chance

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

83% chance

Will the US be a democracy in 2035?

89% chance

Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?

31% chance

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

36% chance

Will the United States no longer be a Democracy in the next ten years?

27% chance

Will the United States no longer be a democracy within 5 years?

19% chance

Will the US have a revolution before 2100?

Will the USA dissolve by 2034?

Sort by:

I think this could do with some revisions given recent events

What if it changes name? What if it merges with another country? What if it loses territory? Etc.

predictedYES

@BenjaminIkuta Good point!

@LeshyIjaraq Well? How would you resolve?

predictedYES

@BenjaminIkuta If it considers itself a continuation of the ideals of the current U.S.A, I'd consider it resolved "yes." A "No" would be a collapse, destruction, or a transition away from a democratic republic.

@LeshyIjaraq Well that's rather broad, isn't it? The Republic of China in Taiwan considered itself a continuation of China, and Byzantium, Rome.

A transition away from democracy can be gradual, a matter of degree. How do you draw the line?

Does the US exist as a stable democracy in 2023?

Define stable..

The market is currently set to resolve at the end of this year. You should change it to 2100 and set a reminder to come back to resolve it.

@Calvin6b82 Set it to 2050, and we'll see where it is from then. If I'm alive (and the market's still open) by 2060, I'll set it to 2100 and we'll make BIG money if America's still a thing