Will half of the world’s population or more live in democracies before 2030?
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46
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2030
22%
chance

This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if half or more of the world's population live in countries that are classified as either flawed democracies (score between 6-7.99) or full democracies (score of 8+) for any report for the 2020s (the last one for the 2020s is likely to be published in early 2030).

In the 2023 report, 45.4% of the world's population live under democracies "of some sort," a small increase from the 2022 report where the number was 45.3%.

The world has come close to half of the world population or more living in democracies, with a figure of 49.4% as recently as 2020, 49.3% in 2017 and 2016, and 49.5% in 2010.

Here are the percentages published by The Economist in Democracy Index reports since 2010:

  • 2023: 45.4% (+0.1)

  • 2022: 45.3% (-0.4)

  • 2021: 45.7% (-3.7)

  • 2020: 49.4% (+1)

  • 2019: 48.4% (+0.7)

  • 2018: 47.7% (-1.6)

  • 2017: 49.3% (no change)

  • 2016: 49.3% (+0.9)

  • 2015: 48.4% (+0.4)

  • 2014: 48.0% (+1)

  • 2013: 47.0% (-1.5)

  • 2012: 48.5% (+0.1)

  • 2011: 48.4% (-1.1)

  • 2010: 49.5%

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