28
378
แน€2.5k
2026
46%
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024? https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican
36%
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population? https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere
34%
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big
32%
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking? https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of
31%
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? https://manifold.markets/SteveRabin/will-the-average-global-temperature
27%
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison
25%
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the
24%
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt? https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
21%
15%
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025? https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
14%
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav
3%
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite? https://manifold.markets/postjawline/will-the-meissner-effect-be-confirm
3%
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

This market helps us assess the joint probability of Trump winning the 2024 election and the occurrence of certain major events.

Trump's potential presidency could significantly influence various areas, such as:

  • U.S. economy

  • AI development

  • Federal funding for scientific research

  • Trump's trial

  • Climate change policy

  • War and foreign affairs

  • Abortion legislation

Conversely, these major events might also affect Trump's chances of election victory.

To give a few examples, Trump being presidency could DECREASE scientific spending, climate change policies, AI promotion, lower chance of Trump's conviction, decrease abortion legalization.

Each individual listed market resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election AND the corresponding major market resolves YES .
Each individual listed market resolves NO if Trump loses the 2024 election
Each individual listed market resolves NO if the corresponding major market doesn't resolves to YES.

[Kindly let me know in the comments if you think a certain market should be added here to provide useful information about joint probability of Biden winning]

Here's a grouping of policy impacted by Trump potential presidency
and the links the to listed markets:

US economy
https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-20 (Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?)

Abortion
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big (In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?)

Climate Change
https://manifold.markets/NathanNguyen/by-end-of-2028-will-ai-be-considere (By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?)

AI development
https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener (In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?)
https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat (Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?)
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav (Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?)

Scientific research
https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre (Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?)
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?

Trump's trial
https://manifold.markets/potatopenguin/will-donald-trump-serve-time-in-pri (Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?)
https://manifold.markets/cy/will-donald-trump-serve-any-prison (Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030?)

Others
https://manifold.markets/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of (Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?)
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024?

Markets with significant impact on Trump winning the election:
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the (Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?)
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n (Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?)

https://manifold.markets/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres (Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?)
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?






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It is really hard to find correlations with the outcome of the election that are worth betting on. I applaud the effort and having been trying myself but I am very pessimistic right now.

If anyone can prove me wrong, they can win some mana here:

906 mana boost applied!

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