What is "wokeness"?

What do you define as wokeness? What would a "wokeness recession" look like?

Wokeness was revealed to be infiltrating elite institutions and governments, so popularity should recede while power continues to increase. This is literally millions of people trying every day to move up.

What's required is for woke people to change their mind, which I don't think they will, since DEI will actually improve outcomes for black and hispanic americans by giving them and their kids alternatives to the hellish all-black and all-hispanic K-12 schools, and both the data and the hope will reflect this reality.

Therefore, as society opposes or even halts their DEI policies, I predict the moderate woke people (still a majority) will become further radicalized and machiavellian and join the decentralized cells. No idea how the FBI, CIA, NSA etc will respond.

I feel too confused about the resolution criteria to feel comfortable voting on this. What are some realistic scenarios that would be sufficient to resolve it as YES? Some possible trends to consider:

• Society reverts to a 2010 level of racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, ableism, etc.

• Positive discussion of woke terms falls dramatically

• Universities and companies emphasize DEI less (already happening)

• Progressive attempts at cancelling people routinely fail

• Gen Z and Millennials have much less support for wokeness

@causal_agency My take is as follows:

• that's baking in the assumption that wokeness has positive influence on these things. Really bad criterion

• sure

• sure. In particular, removing stuff like "diversity statements" from academic job applications, reduction of mandatory "sensitivity trainings", speaking engagements for woke activists and so on.

• yes, either that or they stop trying

• sure.

Additionally, I'd say progressives accepting unfavorable court rulings on things like affirmative action, racial quotas and other forms of "reverse" discrimination (a bunch of this is being litigated in the US right now AFAIK).

IMO it will not recede per se - the dedicated followers will remain so, and for a long time. But it will become more controversial, as more people start to notice the negative effects of the ideology.

Base rates for a 1-year cultural change that significantly manifests in one's personal life seem small

@ZviMowshowitz how much do you consider wokeness to have receded in 2023? Would this have resolved true for 2023? Would it have been close?

If vibes move one way and policy another, then which is weighted more?

@MattLashofSullivan weighted on how much they impact lived experience I'd say, also I already regret agreeing to use my judgment!

@ZviMowshowitz Your personal lived experience? That of people you know? Are you/they currently experiencing oppressions/problems/risks of the sort that would be alleviated by wokeness achieving its goals (or such that their alleviation would constitute a success of wokeness)?

Did smallpox eradication recede overall from 1970 to 1980?

@SonataGreen my estimation of overall lived experience for everyone, if it is unclear to me I will likely use some form of poll, and I am mostly going to call it for clarifying questions on that because this will never end otherwise.

In the global West, or just in North America? Because the outlook for wokeness in the two are very different

@thepurplebull From my perspective, so weighted towards America in effect.

I see no precedent for this.

What parts of the prediction will you be judging? Are you just judging the "wokeness will recede" part, or the entire thing? "There were always more people against it than there seemed, but many were afraid to say so," appears to be false already, which would at the very least make it impossible for the tweet to be entirely true.

Also, are there any examples of things you would consider to be strong evidence of wokeness receding or not receding? I want to get an idea of you're judgement since it's such an ill-defined term. What if there seem to be fewer people arguing in favor of it but also fewer arguing against it?

@PlasmaBallin Clarified that this refers to the headline term only. It will be a holistic judgment rather than on any particular metric as such.

(If this takes off in size I may seek a clearer resolution criteria and suggestions are welcome, but for now this is holistic.)

@PlasmaBallin Why does that "appear to be false already"?

It certainly seems true to me.

@DavidBolin Based on what I mentioned in the previous comment, that polls showed that most Americans actually think of it as a positive term. That would suggest that there are actually a lot fewer people against it than the "anti-woke" crowd claims.

Don't polls show that most people actually consider "woke" a positive word?

I'd actually be (somewhat) more confident in this market if it was on your 'subjective judgement' - your judgement is imo significantly stronger than twitter poll voters, and politics especially causes people like 'random twitter users' to not make good factual judgements. Idiosyncratic individual factors in bad resolutions are (imo) not actually huge issues so long as the creator's already filtered for competence and some experience with prediction markets.

@jacksonpolack I would also prefer if one person (Zvi in this case) was the judge. Easier to predict one person's bias than their twitter audience

@jacksonpolack do people want to change to my judgement? I see 5 likes above.

@jacksonpolack (like this one to say do not switch.)

@jacksonpolack OK, seems very clear, so making the switch.