Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024?
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1.4K
2025
46%
chance

Paul Graham predicts YES (https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1742333500621996409): Prediction: Wokeness will recede significantly in 2024. There were always more people against it than there seemed, but many were afraid to say so. Now that it's safer to criticize it, more will. I think wokeness actually peaked in 2020 or 2021 and has been slowly contracting since then. If we're lucky this will be one of those things that dies, as Hemingway put it, "gradually, then suddenly."

Resolves to YES if it happened, NO if it didn't.

EDIT for clarification: This will evaluate the claim "Wokeness will recede significantly in 2024," whether or not the rest of Paul's claims age well or prove true.

Resolves to my subjective judgment, taking into account market activity (if consistently trades <11% or >89% will almost certainly resolve accordingly). If I am sufficiently uncertain I will consider using a Twitter poll.

[Resolution was originally via poll directly on day 1, but trader preference for change was clear]

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@JimAusman That is not what we mean here. We mean what the average citizen means when they say woke. The Oxford definition simply does not match reality in 2024.

Alternatively: Wokeness is the thing that makes me not want to risk elaborating further about what wokeness means on the public internet.

A bit outdated, but at least it's a comment building a case rather than querying the criteria specifics:

"SNL goes anti-woke! Fired former cast member Shane Gillis makes triumphant return as host with VERY risque jokes about race, gays and Down syndrome" (Daily Mail, Feb28)

wokitter pollsters

Google immediately pulling Gemini's ability to make pics of people rather than doubling down is evidence of evidence for YES IMO.

the fact it happened at all is evidence for no

Wokeness: “the quality of being alert to and concerned about social injustice and discrimination.”

That’s the Oxford dictionary definition. Is that what you will be using?

@JimAusman that's the historical definition, but in context of the tweet I think it's more about excess sensitivity to imagined symbolic issues.

@MartinRandall I would love to see what Zvi has to say about this. If the definition involves imagined issues or not will have a big impact on resolution.

@JimAusman That is not what we mean here. We mean what the average citizen means when they say woke. The Oxford definition simply does not match reality in 2024.

Alternatively: Wokeness is the thing that makes me not want to risk elaborating further about what wokeness means on the public internet.

@ZviMowshowitz the first rule of defining wokeness is: you don't talk about wokeness

@ZviMowshowitz If we can’t define it then we won’t be able to tell if there is more or less if it. Tell me what you believe that the average citizen means when they say woke. I don’t believe that there is a consensus definition, certainly not among the population of average citizens.

Perhaps we can use Paul Graham’s definition of wokeness, if we can figure out what it is.

@JimAusman Let me try!

On a basic bitch level it would mean "to be awake" or the "state of awakening"

BUT Semi Moore doesn't look this good at 60 bc she's BASIC.

Wokeness is a brand new ambiguous term that leads to more ambiguous terms when us brand new people try and squabble. Lets look to all of humanity for clues and really break this down into patterns we have seen throughout history. This doesnt solve it but I hope it brings you closer.

buddhism: enlightenment

hinduism: moksha

christianity: conversion

islam: hidayah

sikhism: padarath

judaism: teshuva

accelerationism: what ilya saw

???: wokeness

If you can figure out the missing clue, you have you will have it defined. I live in a well known zoo, the kind for only the refined.

The last paragraph has nothing to do with wokeness BTW. I just like poems

What is "wokeness"?

What do you define as wokeness? What would a "wokeness recession" look like?

predicts YES

Wokeness was revealed to be infiltrating elite institutions and governments, so popularity should recede while power continues to increase. This is literally millions of people trying every day to move up.

What's required is for woke people to change their mind, which I don't think they will, since DEI will actually improve outcomes for black and hispanic americans by giving them and their kids alternatives to the hellish all-black and all-hispanic K-12 schools, and both the data and the hope will reflect this reality.

Therefore, as society opposes or even halts their DEI policies, I predict the moderate woke people (still a majority) will become further radicalized and machiavellian and join the decentralized cells. No idea how the FBI, CIA, NSA etc will respond.

I feel too confused about the resolution criteria to feel comfortable voting on this. What are some realistic scenarios that would be sufficient to resolve it as YES? Some possible trends to consider:

  • Society reverts to a 2010 level of racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, ableism, etc.

  • Positive discussion of woke terms falls dramatically

  • Universities and companies emphasize DEI less (already happening)

  • Progressive attempts at cancelling people routinely fail

  • Gen Z and Millennials have much less support for wokeness

@causal_agency My take is as follows:

  • that's baking in the assumption that wokeness has positive influence on these things. Really bad criterion

  • sure

  • sure. In particular, removing stuff like "diversity statements" from academic job applications, reduction of mandatory "sensitivity trainings", speaking engagements for woke activists and so on.

  • yes, either that or they stop trying

  • sure.

Additionally, I'd say progressives accepting unfavorable court rulings on things like affirmative action, racial quotas and other forms of "reverse" discrimination (a bunch of this is being litigated in the US right now AFAIK).

bought Ṁ50 of NO

IMO it will not recede per se - the dedicated followers will remain so, and for a long time. But it will become more controversial, as more people start to notice the negative effects of the ideology.

predicts NO

Base rates for a 1-year cultural change that significantly manifests in one's personal life seem small

@ZviMowshowitz how much do you consider wokeness to have receded in 2023? Would this have resolved true for 2023? Would it have been close?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

If vibes move one way and policy another, then which is weighted more?

@MattLashofSullivan weighted on how much they impact lived experience I'd say, also I already regret agreeing to use my judgment!

@ZviMowshowitz Your personal lived experience? That of people you know? Are you/they currently experiencing oppressions/problems/risks of the sort that would be alleviated by wokeness achieving its goals (or such that their alleviation would constitute a success of wokeness)?

Did smallpox eradication recede overall from 1970 to 1980?

@SonataGreen my estimation of overall lived experience for everyone, if it is unclear to me I will likely use some form of poll, and I am mostly going to call it for clarifying questions on that because this will never end otherwise.

In the global West, or just in North America? Because the outlook for wokeness in the two are very different

@thepurplebull From my perspective, so weighted towards America in effect.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 44% to 43%