I believe.

It seems like they have pretty short timelines: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment

Introducing Superalignment

We need scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control AI systems much smarter than us. To solve this problem within four years, we’re starting a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and dedicating 20% of the compute we’ve secured to date to this effort. We’re looking for e…

@osmarks if their timelines were really that short, wouldn't they be spending more than 20%?

@jskf Fair. I assume it's due to internal politicking and probably some people there disagreeing.

@osmarks 2030 market

@osmarks

Quoting their blog post:

"Here we focus on superintelligence rather than AGI to stress a much higher capability level. We have a lot of uncertainty over the speed of development of the technology over the next few years, so we choose to aim for the more difficult target to align a much more capable system."

From OpenAI employee:

@3684 I don't agree with that definition. Then again I don't think AGI is even possible so maybe I am out of my depth.

@SpaceAge Why not?

Since OpenAI's claims don't have to be accepted by everyone else:

What would count as "Proto-AGI"?

@JosephNoonan see comments below

Increasing YES bet considering I think <25% is too low.

@firstuserhere Please explain in the description what qualifies as hinting at having AGI.

@LukeHanks updated

@firstuserhere That's good, but I was wondering what qualifies as *hinting* in your eyes.

@LukeHanks Thats a really good question. I will think more about how to phrase it, but i think i originally meant hinting at X as in marketing a product as capable of X even if the public disagrees about the product being capable of X (or perhaps the public doesn't have access to the product and cannot really test if it is capable of X but OpenAI says it is). What other meaning of hinting could we have? I would like to clarify those to avoid confusion, but i hope the spirit of the market is clear

Waiting for the inevitable "No company in the history of ever has announced AGI, so base rates alone say this market should be 1%"

@Mira AI doom has never happened before since 1600, so base rates alone say those markets should be trading at like, 0.4% or less.

@ShadowyZephyr Have you not seen War Games??

@Mira I wonder why my notifications say you made this comment 17 minutes ago…

This is a tough one. Sam Altman already said "maybe GPT50" on Lex Fridman's podcasts and transformers probably aren't the magic bullet we are looking for. However, "claim or hint" is kind of a catch-all and sales teams love overhyping their products.

@AviMosseri I think Microsoft will claim it for them, but that doesn't count. If Sam and other figures at OpenAI push back I don't think that should count.

They might claim "Proto-agi" or "baby-agi" like the MS research team, so I am betting YES, but I don't think that means what people think it means, especially if there is no path forwards in terms of reliability.