Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end? (8000M subsidy)
506
closes 2026
28%
chance

Claims for ProtoAgi also count

open ai gives the definition of agi follows

"By AGI, we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work."

That's the default unless explicitly stated otherwise by them.

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Sort by:
Mira avatar
Mirapredicts YES

I believe.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
jskf avatar
jskfpredicts NO

@osmarks if their timelines were really that short, wouldn't they be spending more than 20%?

osmarks avatar
osmarkspredicts YES

@jskf Fair. I assume it's due to internal politicking and probably some people there disagreeing.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@osmarks

Quoting their blog post:

"Here we focus on superintelligence rather than AGI to stress a much higher capability level. We have a lot of uncertainty over the speed of development of the technology over the next few years, so we choose to aim for the more difficult target to align a much more capable system."

3684 avatar
CuriousNoobbought Ṁ10 of NO

From OpenAI employee:

2 replies
SpaceAge avatar
Space Agepredicts NO

@3684 I don't agree with that definition. Then again I don't think AGI is even possible so maybe I am out of my depth.

ICRainbow avatar
IC Rainbowpredicts NO

@SpaceAge Why not?

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

Since OpenAI's claims don't have to be accepted by everyone else:

JosephNoonan avatar
Plasma Ballin'

What would count as "Proto-AGI"?

1 reply
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@JosephNoonan see comments below

parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ5 of YES

Increasing YES bet considering I think <25% is too low.

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks

@firstuserhere Please explain in the description what qualifies as hinting at having AGI.

3 replies
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@LukeHanks updated

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks

@firstuserhere That's good, but I was wondering what qualifies as *hinting* in your eyes.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

@LukeHanks Thats a really good question. I will think more about how to phrase it, but i think i originally meant hinting at X as in marketing a product as capable of X even if the public disagrees about the product being capable of X (or perhaps the public doesn't have access to the product and cannot really test if it is capable of X but OpenAI says it is). What other meaning of hinting could we have? I would like to clarify those to avoid confusion, but i hope the spirit of the market is clear

Mira avatar
Mirapredicts YES

Waiting for the inevitable "No company in the history of ever has announced AGI, so base rates alone say this market should be 1%"

3 replies
ShadowyZephyr avatar

@Mira AI doom has never happened before since 1600, so base rates alone say those markets should be trading at like, 0.4% or less.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@ShadowyZephyr Have you not seen War Games??

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicts NO

@Mira I wonder why my notifications say you made this comment 17 minutes ago…

AviMosseri avatar
Avi Mosseribought Ṁ100 of YES

This is a tough one. Sam Altman already said "maybe GPT50" on Lex Fridman's podcasts and transformers probably aren't the magic bullet we are looking for. However, "claim or hint" is kind of a catch-all and sales teams love overhyping their products.

1 reply
ShadowyZephyr avatar

@AviMosseri I think Microsoft will claim it for them, but that doesn't count. If Sam and other figures at OpenAI push back I don't think that should count.

parhizj avatar
JRPbought Ṁ10 of YES

They might claim "Proto-agi" or "baby-agi" like the MS research team, so I am betting YES, but I don't think that means what people think it means, especially if there is no path forwards in terms of reliability.