If a market submitted here resolves before the 2024 election, it resolves N/A. If it resolves after the election and before 2030, it will be compared to /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres .

• If both markets resolve yes, that option resolves yes.

• If both markets resolve no, that option resolves yes.

• If the markets resolve in different directions, that market resolves no.

If one of the market resolves N/A or %, I may N/A that option here unless I think it was a mis-resolution. Any markets set to resolve after 2030 will be N/A-ed.

To make effective bets here, my advice is you should first figure out the chances that the two markets resolve the same way if the probabilities are accurate and they are independent events. For a market very likely to resolve yes, this would be close to Trump's current % odds. For a market very likely to resolve No, this would be close to (1 - Trump's current % odds). For anything else, it'll be somewhere in the middle. Call this P(I).

Then, if you think the event is correlated with Trump's election, you should bet higher than P(I). If you think it's anti-correlated, you should bet lower than P(I). If you think it's not very correlated or anti-correlated, you should try to bet against the people betting it higher or lower than P(I).

You can submit your own markets in the format of [Market Title] - [Link to market].

Guidelines for what good submissions:

• Is about something that someone might reasonably think is correlated or anti-correlated with Trump being in power.

• Has well written criteria, and so is unlikely to resolve N/A or to %.

• Is decently likely to resolve in the next presidential term.

• Is not extremely unlikely or extremely likely. Try to aim for things that might or might not happen.

I may N/A any submissions that I view as not meeting these conditions, or which simply aren't interesting enough to attract traders. But these are guidelines, and not strict rules. I'm open to suggestions for improving these criteria, please let me know any you think of.