memestiny avatar
memestiny
closes Dec 31, 2030
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of sex trafficking?
68%
chance

Regarding his current charges and the outcome of his arrest.

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jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polack
bought Ṁ100 of YES

any particular reason this is 60-70 past few days instead of 70-80? was there new info on a destiny stream or something?

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 68%

@jacksonpolack No, but the unnecessary celebrating has slowed a bit. People are remembering how difficult it is, and how unlikely it is, to find someone guilty of sex trafficking. 80% is ridiculous until we hear some testimony from girls who claim to be trafficked.

If it turns out most of these girls have 6 figure or greater net worths, and they could have left at any time, there is no shot he gets a sex trafficking charge.

DavidBacon avatar
David Bacon
is predicting YES at 70%

@jacksonpolack it's because people put on so many limit orders I can't even sell

DavidChee avatar

We've made a TikTok on this market!
We are planning to start making short videos on some of our most popular markets and posting them to TikTok and Youtube shorts.

If you are on those platforms please give it a watch all the way through.

https://www.tiktok.com/@manifoldmarkets/video/7193128860441988358

DavidChee avatar

@DavidChee hmm apparently the video is under review so the link doesn't work. I guess because it mentions human trafficking, maybe shouldn't have actually said that out loud for the account's first ever upload LOL

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finan
is predicting NO at 71%

commenting "truth arbitrage opportunity" on every market I enter from now on

Cameron avatar
Cameron
bought Ṁ100 of NO

Terribly priced market, due to yes buyers bias, truth arbitrage opportunity

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 68%

@Cameron Slow down on the copium

izzetdelzed avatar
delzed
is predicting NO at 70%

@Simon1551 How is this copium? I want Tate to get clapped but there isn't a 70% chance of it happening lmao

ImBuckleyy avatar
Buckleyy
is predicting NO at 75%

I'm not stressin'

conradgetty avatar
Conrad Getty
bought Ṁ16 of NO

this will be my great comeback

MagniorBjornsson avatar
Magni Þór Björnsson
is predicting YES at 79%

@conradgetty I believe!

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 65%

Fellas the coin is rolling in now, haters out, bros not going down for “sex trafficking” ever.

Organised crime? almost certainly

Rape?? Maybe

Human trafficking?? If they try their hardest and he basically admits to it in court

Sex trafficking? Lololooooooolllllolopoool no way fellas grow up

Jash avatar
Jash
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Gen grow up isn't really an argument

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 65%

@Jash Grow up

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 65%

@Jash Love you

PhilWheatley avatar
Phil
is predicting YES at 67%

@Gen yeah it would be a disaster for him if say there were recordings of him describing the sex trafficing he was doing, good thing theres not....

Martinitis avatar
Martoua
is predicting YES at 77%

@Gen Sex trafficking is a form of human trafficking dude, which is obviously what Tate was describing himself that he was doing. https://www.justice.gov/humantrafficking

Odoacre avatar

He's accused of human trafficking, not sex trafficking

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 85%

Organised crime? Yes

Rape? Difficult to prove, but lots of evidence

Sex trafficking? Not even remotely likely. 50/50 at best if we maximum cope.

Martinitis avatar
Martoua
is predicting YES at 79%

Doubters Askers

PelidesAchilles avatar
Pelides
is predicting NO at 79%

@Resolution that would be evidence towards the rape allegations he faces, not the sex trafficing ones

Kris avatar
Kris
bought Ṁ200 of YES

The taters are about to be toted home

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 83%

Ok guys my no position is filled now, y’all need to grow up, no way this dude going down for “sex trafficking”, how do they even prove that? Does this dude even drive? I’ve never seen him in traffic

100% he pleas to criminal conspiracy and the rest is dropped. No way in hell this dude goes down on the first set of charges just because he has calming business. Dude will say it was all just jokes and there will be no evidence otherwise.

Let me know if you are cool 😎 by buying NO today

DavidDavidson avatar
David Davidson
sold Ṁ41 of YES

@Gen I'm so confused, you're 1000M in and you're memeing in the comments. wtf is going on

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 83%

@DavidDavidson There are many ways to participate in a market I'll just say that.

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 83%

@DavidDavidson Yes buyers ?? I’m embarrassed to share a comment section with you

have you ever seen a traffic cop? He’ll pay an expiation and face no traffic charges. No way he goes to court. No way he’s found guilty. Dude will plea to the criminal organisation charge and the Romanian police will Pat themselves on the back. A few asset seizures and a bit of silence from Tate and they will call it a W and close the book. Buyers beware (SELL NOW)

Being serious, this market should be closer to 30%, i can meme because it’s almost definitely going to pay me out. I don’t need to sell for profit, I can just wait until he pleas to some weak shit.

PhilWheatley avatar
Phil
is predicting YES at 67%

@Gen you are assuming they aren't going to make an example of him for bragging about how he can just pay off the authorities there which is why he moved there. they don't mind being corrupt, but they do mind being put on blast for it by someone taking advantage of that corruption.

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 67%

@PhilWheatley Not sure if serious, but they can make an example out of him in sentencing. It won’t affect whether or not a specific claim is guilty.

Assigning him guilty with insufficient evidence is just as damaging for their legal system as him being able to buy his way out. The world is watching, they have to do everything right. No way he gets a “sex trafficking” charge with the current public info. It’s a huge stretch.

He may not even get a rape charge. Organised crime is the easiest one to win

PhilWheatley avatar
Phil
is predicting YES at 67%

@Gen thats true enough, id not put it past them though to try and fabricate it (if it doesnt exist) if they believe they can get away with it.

tbone_steak avatar
TBone
bought Ṁ100 of YES

The Tates lost their appeal in court today. They are going down.

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 83%

@tbone_steak Yesssss 😭 😭 My mana suffers but my faith in humanity grows 😭 👍

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 84%

@Gen There's a high chance that it resolves later on this year there's no way they convict him of anything this fast. I think. You could sell your position overtime

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 84%

@Simon1551 He’s getting convicted tomorrow, it’s over. Buy buy buy !

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 84%

@Gen OH SHIT!!!

budududupow avatar
budududu pow
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@tbone_steak lol, this has no bearing on whether they'll be found guilty of sex trafficking

IrishSerpent avatar
IrishSerpent
bought Ṁ49 of NO

People need to remember that this is specifically for if Tate is found guilty of sex trafficking not just found guilty of anything.

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 72%

@IrishSerpent I really don't see how he could escape this.

IrishSerpent avatar
IrishSerpent
is predicting NO at 72%

@Simon1551 Absolutely thats while he'll take a plea deal and won't be found guilty of sex trafficking

Simon1551 avatar
Simon
is predicting YES at 72%
memestock avatar
meme stock
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Safe bet. Even if he didn't do it (he did) he's getting found guilty for sure. It's too big a risk for them to do nothing IMO.

Gen avatar
Genzy
bought Ṁ95 of NO

@memestock Sure, he’ll probably be found guilty of something. You’re betting it’ll be sex trafficking (very hard to prove)

Simon1551 avatar

Why is the market going down?

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 43%

@Simon1551 Don’t worry about this market, find a way to get destiny in factorio plz 😂

Simon1551 avatar

@Gen@Gen🤣

Simon1551 avatar

@Simon1551 God I hate how comments work here

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 43%

@Simon1551 bro wtf did I cause this? @IrishSerpent

I need to stop commenting with comments that are consistent with my beliefs. here i was hopeful to fill my no limit order at 70%

NO VOTERS ARE DELUSIONAL BUY YES TATE IS MISOGYNIST TERRORIST BUY YES PLS

Simon1551 avatar

@Jacknaut :OMEGALUL:

JohannMuhlbach avatar
jojomonsta7777
is predicting NO at 42%

@Simon1551 because i say so

IrishSerpent avatar
IrishSerpent
is predicting NO at 48%

@Jacknaut No shot he actually gets convicted

Gen avatar
Genzy
is predicting NO at 44%

can’t wait for him to only be guilty of organised crime

BlueTime avatar
Blue Time
is predicting NO at 82%

@Gen TRUE

n99m avatar
n99m
bought Ṁ50 of NO

Per the Vice article cam studios aren’t a new phenomenon in Romania. It seems *prima facie* unlikely that cam studios are illegal.

More over, if it is true that Andrew Tate has sexually trafficked women, it would be likely he did so through some form of soft coercion as opposed to physically forcing women to do things against their will.

The term “lover boy” comes to mind when thinking how Andrew Tate might have engaged in human trafficking. Lover boys seduce victims into falling in love with them. They leverage the emotional connection they have with the victim to convince them to prostitute themselves or otherwise perform other sexual services.

Its unlikely that Andrew Tate acted as a pimp beyond that of running a cam studio. Moreover, Andrew Tate is ostensibly a calculating and strategic person. So if he has committed these crimes, I believe he’d probably considered the many ways he might be prosecuted, and subsequently how to shield himself from a criminal conviction.

https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/j5v3g4/inside-romanias-booming-sexcam-business

UFTG avatar
UFTG
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@n99m Loverboying them to another country, taking their passports and not letting them leave the house sounds pretty bad to me. Pretty dumb to be talking about doing all these things and more openly, but I don't know much about him.

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 66%

@UFTG "...but I don't know much about him" about sums up the vast majority of people who say things like "X Y and Z headline allegations and 10 second clips spread on social media and news outlets sound pretty bad to me".

UFTG avatar
UFTG
is predicting YES at 66%

@Jacknaut That was regarding him being dumb or not. I don't need to watch the mans every video or know his lifes story to know the things I mentioned are bad.

To be clear these are things he himself plainly admitted doing in a long format.

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
bought Ṁ0 of NO

@UFTG It's only dumb to be "openly" "plainly admitting" something, if it's true and not a lie and/or hyperbole. Though I also don't know much about him, I have seen enough to know that he often speaks hyperbolically on his podcast and his published content, as evidenced by the fact that he isn't someone who only speaks hyperbolically, such as in his Piers Morgan interview.

I'm inclined to believe the "They're not allowed to leave the house" video doesn't mean what you seem to imply it means - "They're helpless damsels who I've systematically physically/emotionally confined such that they're unable to leave", and rather "There are ground rules for being with me. One is that you're not allowed to go out partying and clubbing without me."

Link to the long form video passport thing? Not something I'm familiar with.

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 55%

@Jacknaut edit:

... imply it means - not "They're helpless ... but rather that "There are ...

SaiVazquez avatar
Sai Vazquez
is predicting YES at 45%

@Jacknaut What would convince you otherwise?

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 45%

@SaiVazquez Links? Evidence? a conviction?

I'm not married to the position - I'm assuming that I'm only slightly more knowledgeable than the average person here due to having watched a single Piers Morgan interview and a couple of his podcasts (on top of the avg which I assume is which is headlines, 10 second clips, a few Destiny vids), and slightly more likely to be correct due to holding an anti-politically-correct stance, which I find to be typically more likely to be correct, so feel free to share something that you think is convincing.

UFTG avatar
UFTG
is predicting YES at 43%

@Jacknaut Idk destiny watched a few videos with him yesterday.

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 45%

@UFTG link?

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 48%

@UFTG Here's the link for anyone not wanting to watch through Destiny's take on this, the link UFTG provided has a lot of stuff from Destiny at the beginning unrelated to Tate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs5b04hnfMQ

Watching now.

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 44%

@UFTG Can you (or anyone) find a link to the original? This lawyer guy is a biased hack not giving anything that could be remotely construed as a legal opinion/take and it's distracting. A quote from the lawyer for example (the last straw at 2.5x speed before I had enough):

(all this the lawyer speaking)

who is the bigger man

11:05

is the bigger man that that's the fucking poser who walks into a club with 12 girls or is the bigger man who is The

11:12

Honorable guy who stands by his family raises a family has a decent job goes to

11:19

work every day is solid I'd rather go to a pub than a club any day when you are

11:24

that guy not the G but when you are a solid Guy where you're there for your

11:31

family you're not trying to manipulate anybody and your provider for your family and you are a solid solid

11:38

straight guy that's the G that's the that's the person who's who's the real man

Jacknaut avatar
Jacknaut
is predicting NO at 44%

@UFTG I did find it sus that he said something about using pimp tactics, but I want to see it in context

n99m avatar
n99m
bought Ṁ200 of NO

@UFTG The Romanian police has previously raided Andrew Tate’s compound under the same pretense as now. They released him from custody and didn’t pursue any human trafficking charges.

Nothing has changed between his last arrest and his current one. If there was incriminating evidence it’s likely he would’ve fled the country.

UFTG avatar

@n99m All I meant to say with my response to you was that the loverboy method sounds bad and the things I saw him say didn't make him look smart and made him look bad. I didn't say anything about how likely he is to be convicted.

SaiVazquez avatar
Sai Vazquez
is predicting YES at 81%

@n99m Have you changed your mind or do you feel more or less strongly about your current position?

DOFT avatar
DOFT
bought Ṁ50 of YES

why is this only at 47%? am i missing something? have you guys not seen his videos about his webcam business? shits shady af

anne avatar
anne
bought Ṁ50 of YES

@DOFT probably his fans

n99m avatar
n99m
is predicting NO at 68%

@DOFT I’m not a fan. But I’m disinclined to believe that it’ll be easy for the prosecution to find incriminating evidence.

ChrisRB13 avatar

Is there a reason why this is in the Destiny.gg group?

ZiquaftyNny avatar
Ziquafty Nny
is predicting NO at 55%

@ChrisBennett
1) It was made by memestiny
2) Destiny has been interacting with Red Pillers a bunch this year. He is only 1 degree of separation from Andrew Tate.