2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.
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As the creator is inactive I say that if conflict between datasets arise NASA will be leading.
Just preventing a possible discussion in a year.
If this warmth carries into fall like last year earth is probably already past the 1.5C trend. Also global sea ice extent is about as low as last year (record low).
https://x.com/hausfath/status/1808411956564361542?s=46
Zeke estimates a 95% chance of 2024 being warmest year up from 75% last month
(May be differences in nasa dataset though)
61% estimate from Harvest Program was based on data up to end of April. Zeke's current estimate is based on data up to end of June.
I.e. they are not incompatible. both May, June hottest ever so odds went up.
El Nina/Nino matters more in following year.
I think as an effect of reducing sulfur pollution in shipping the earth is still absorbing much more radiation than it’s emitting (on top of the effect from increasing GHG). And this effect will continue to warm planet significantly for years (though ofc el Nina and declining solar cycle will have cooling effects).
@will58c Anyone have views about Leon Simons ? I tend to think he's onto something with the reduction in sulfate shipping emissions causing significant warming.
However, he seems to be in the minority.
@nic_kup That is satellite based. Seems like it should have good coverage but the satellite record has run into problems with calibrating for satellite drift and between satellites. It is good for up to date daily reading but here we need comparison to 2016.
Therefore I prefer the established NASA or NOAA records. Hadley centre record also good but has been slower with data. Berkeley Earth is another possibility. Anyway we have been told it is NASA over a month ago so I don't think that should change.
@WieDan Any good market about the probability of La Nina being active in each month?
@bohaska I created a couple (for longer periods than 1 month):
https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-the-average-enso-oni-be-i
https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith
As the creator is inactive I say that if conflict between datasets arise NASA will be leading.
Just preventing a possible discussion in a year.