Lucie's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.13
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Lucie bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- 📖Will @ScottAlexander write _another_ banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?YESṀ60
- Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 1000 people by the end of 2023?NOṀ50
- Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?NOṀ50
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%