Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?
348
12k
6.4k
resolved Feb 15
Resolved
NO

Manifold is mulling a new product, perhaps hosted at manifold.love, which takes aim at the dating market.

The site would feature one prediction market per dating profile that asks: "Who will I date for 6 months?"

In a first, we would leverage crowdsourced betting to surface the top matches for each person, based on real predictions of how long their relationship would last.

Read my full writeup here! Excerpts are below.

Super interested in what the Manifold community thinks about this proposal. Let's iterate on the design to make it as strong as possible.

At Manifest, Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)!

Thesis

Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because:

  1. It is fun for traders, which means people will be motivated to bet and thus create accurate forecasts

  2. Accurate forecasts of relationships are super valuable

Betting on love is fun

People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun.

Prediction markets are an ideal solution to matchmaking

Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on Manifold’s strong track record.

Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool!

How it might work

  • Users opt-in to create dating profiles

  • One main prediction market per person:

    “Who will I date for 6 months?”

    • Free response market constrained to dating profiles on Manifold.

    • Resolves to next such person you date for 6 months

    • Subsidized liquidity (M2000?)

    • Created when you first fill out your profile.

  • Custom UI for browsing and betting on dating profiles

    • A table view with one row per person, standard info in columns, link to full profile (or opens in sidebar on desktop)

    • Select two people and bet on their relationship success

    • For each person, show the market’s top three matches (and let you bet on them directly from the table view)

    • Filtering, sorting, pinning potential matches via checkbox, leaving notes

Principles

  • Matchmaking is betting, and everyone can play matchmaker

  • Empower matchmakers

    • Give them the UI and tools to be effective

    • Public dating profiles with high information drive better crowdsourced decisions

  • Kickstart a flourishing ecosystem of fun secondary dating markets

    • The hope is that by doing the main matchmaking through markets, people will be more willing to create lots and lots of secondary markets on aspects of their dating lives. And they will be hilarious and super engaging

    • E.g. Will we kiss tonight? Where will we go for our date? Will our relationship last two weeks? Will he propose this year? How many children will we have by 2030?

  • Privacy where possible (Not 100% on this yet)

    • Dating profiles won’t by default be linkable and shareable. You can only find them in the table with everyone else

      • Allows people to feel freer to include more about themselves

    • Dating profiles will not by default be linked to your Manifold account. Can use a pseudonym

Encourage evolving community sophistication at matchmaking

  • Matchmakers will learn what questions to ask daters (comment section on dating profile)

  • Daters will fill in more information over time based on what is helpful

  • With DM’s (private 1:1 chat), traders can ask about character flaws too sensitive to broadcast publicly

Resolution criteria

To resolve YES, manifold.love needs 1000 daily active users on average over 7 days.

An active user must perform at least one of the following:
- Profile create and edits
- Bets (from people without profiles too, but has to be on manfold.love domain)
- Comments / endorsements
- Messages

I reserve the right to modify this / add more actions that I feel are primary.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ24,773
2Ṁ17,008
3Ṁ15,581
4Ṁ10,408
5Ṁ8,073
Sort by:

I'm not surprised the outcome here. It takes some work to create a profile and the potential users need to be convinced that there's people here worth creating profiles for.
Short of hitting some kind of viral exposure, via a meme or a wildly popular video/article, it wasn't going to happen that fast. For some real world contrast I checked up on a different dating project that started 5 years ago and only recently hit 300,000 registered users... advertising yourself as open source and privacy focused doesn't exactly draw in users.
Manifold love definitely has better keywords than that to draw potential users in with, though I could see a potentially large amount turned away if the advertising makes people think they have to play a stockmarket minigame to participate.

reposted

The end of an era. It's Valentine's Day and Manifold Love is now a few months old. But it did not hit the 1000 daily active users goal (which was a bit ambitious I'll admit).

However, the trajectory for the app has actually been very good. We've been growing almost exponentially, and the features have become more solid over time, including compatibility questions like OkCupid, liking, and shipping.

And! We've just launched the THIRD major iteration of prediction markets with the aim to make them as useful as possible at informing you of who you should date.

Each market costs $100 USD which all goes into a subsidy so that there will be plenty of mana to win by playing matchmaker.

Go check it out! https://manifold.love/markets

Also, sorry to all the people who bought YES, and lost a lot of mana! I'll keep fighting toward the thousand daily active user goal.

Today, there were 49 active users.

@JamesGrugett You should use data on second/third dates to train a proper ml model that predicts chances of a successful relationship, I bet it will be better than the human predictors pretty quickly - manifold.love has all the advantages that make AI models better at forecasting and none of the human advantages

@colorednoise Don't you need a large amount of data to train such a model? If someone does figure this out, it's also possible to create a trading bot to bet appropriately on matches!

@JamesGrugett you are charging $100 for a chance to be matched with 49 people? Yeah, that will sure encourage adoption

@JamesGrugett

I don't understand the cost here, nor the guarantee.
I understand Tinder costs a crapload, and Bumble is shit too. And than all the others match group owns.
I have literally been on the site for 4 months and never got matched.
Free Tinder ~100 Matches/day (Its tinder)
Free Bumble ~19 Matches/day (Mid quality)

Free Facebook Dating ~12 Matches/day (Very high quality matches)


So what if Creators started charging Manifold to post their Markets, is that kind of the same thing?

@CodeandSolder That's an order of magnitude cheaper than most "pay for first date" sites.

@SirCryptomind If you are regularly getting matches on those other sites, you might not be the target market.

Signed, 0 matches [with non-scammer non-spambot humans] per year on all the platforms you listed.

@JamesGrugett you can train a model on social networks (scan photos and determine how long people are together). Though, they can object to such usage of information...

@CodeandSolder Manifold Love is free to use for liking and messaging. Only prediction markets cost money now, but you get it back if you don't go on a 3rd date, so it's like a deposit.

@colorednoise @AnT I just read an interesting piece where someone tried to create an AI model predicting if matches after running some speed dating events: https://dkras.substack.com/p/dating-experiments

Ooh so close maybe next year

MdL in Time today:

https://time.com/6694798/manifold-love-dating-markets/

Anyone wanna bet it'll be enough to drive 7k new users in the next 10 hours?

2 traders bought Ṁ20 YES

If more of the links went to .love instead of .markets, maybe. As it is, not a chance.

@Sparr It's worse than I thought. 6 signups in the last 24h, which if anything is below trend. Any effect of the Time article is in the noise and not visible at all.

I have no idea why an article seemingly mostly about .love has almost exclusively links to .markets

Attendees at "Bet on Love" count as DAUs, right?

@MartinRandall yes but it's an average over seven days, so 1000 BoL attendees wouldn't be enought in its own right.

@MartinRandall Only if they do the relevant tasks to show on the graph, I think. James linked this graph for the relevant metric in another comment https://manifold.love/stats

predicted NO

I question the validity of some of the female profiles.

predicted NO

@mkalbert What we need is a three-man resolution council to validate the authenticity of all 1000 profiles. Jack, Conflux, Martin... you around?

please put manifold.love out of its misery </3

repostedpredicted YES

This is closer than you might think! We're at 150 daily active users today. Less than an order of magnitude to go!!

2 traders bought Ṁ30 NO

@JamesGrugett I don't see any limit orders on YES so, i'm gonna pass 🤷

predicted YES

@firstuserhere Closer to YES. Not necessarily YES 😂

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@firstuserhere added one

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@JamesGrugett All you need is to double every week until Valentine's day!

predicted NO

@JamesGrugett anywhere to see this live?

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch I think you can see it here: https://manifold.love/stats

predicted NO

@JamesGrugett dang it james i was just about to take his order

More related questions