Will there be at least 3 more people holding YES shares than holding NO shares at market close?
resolved Feb 20

Omits accounts with the "bot" tag.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ0 of YES

Well, GG friends.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing thank you for this market, was great fun!

predicted NO

there's still time....

predicted NO

Upping my offer to 100% of profits. :)

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@IsaacKing selling hope

sold Ṁ1 of NO

44 NO and 134 YES at the moment. I'm selling my NO and joining the YES team. Sorry guys, the momentum towards NO is building, but there's not enough time

predicted YES

@Kaytie the grass is always greener on the other side

sold Ṁ48 of YES

selling yes at almost 100 % and buy one no for the chance

sold Ṁ934 of YES

Buying NO, going to bed. Friendly reminder for others to do the same :D

predicted YES

@PatMyron @firstuserhere is the M2 mana match for yes holders still on? Now I worry I have misunderstood that deal

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@Odoacre I'm still good for my half 👍

bought Ṁ500 of YES

@PatMyron same here. Though I'd much rather let you handle the distribution and tunnel the aggregate due amount to you

predicted YES

Sounds too good to be true, forgive my suspiciousness. Are you saying if someone dumps 10k in this you're going to pay them back 10k each? I'm not going to say no to 100% returns... But that does not make a lot of sense. I must be misunderstanding

predicted YES

(speaking at least for my match, though I assume @firstuserhere was thinking similar)
match is capped at Ṁ1 per user, no reason for us to match beyond that

sold Ṁ3,934 of YES

@Odoacre Since what matters is holding the share than the amount, @PatMyron made the offer of making it free for a new trader to join the YES side, and i basically added another Ṁ, giving anyone who joined YES side and held it, 2 free Ṁ

predicted YES

@firstuserhere ok I misunderstood.

sold Ṁ670 of YES

Isaak is offering M70 for NO why would you offer M2 for YES?

predicted YES

@Odoacre I don't see Ṁ70 offered anywhere. I only saw their offer for a percentage of their profits, which would more likely than not be negative

predicted NO

@PatMyron He has 7.8k NO shares (assuming he does not buy more at a great rate) and is giving away 80% profit divided equally by no holders. Assuming 90 NO holders that's M69 each. On top of whatever you get by selling your YES at almost full price, on top of whatever NO you can buy (buying only a small amount of NO is best, so to incentivise more people to switch, but is not necessary, since anyone who has less than 60 YES should switch regardless, so if you must be greedy, go for it). Sounds like a no brainer to me.

predicted YES
predicted YES

tl;dr we're offering Ṁ2, they're offering some small chance of some Ṁ

predicted NO

@PatMyron sure but the opportunity cost is ridiculously small.

Suppose you own 11 YES right now. Best case scenario you make 11. Instead can sell your 11 for 10 right now lose a potential 1 but stand to gain 70.

predicted NO

@PatMyron worst that happens they can still switch at the last moment and get their extra 2 mana from you, so it really is a 0 cost gamble

predicted YES

"I'll cover the Ṁ1 anyone puts on YES and holds from now until close"

No they cannot. I addressed that verbatim in my initial offer and would not cover someone who defected and only came crawling back last moment