Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?
173
1.1k
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resolved Oct 7
Resolved
YES

What will media attention on EA look like this year?

In 2021, EA was mentioned in 9 articles. In 2023 so far, it's been used only in one, implying 8 by end of year at the current rate. The year 2022 was an outlier largely because of the collapse of FTX and the launch of What We Owe The Future.

Market will resolve to YES if there are more than 9 articles as measured by this search or an equivalent. It will resolve to N/A if there are no equivalent searches that can resolve it for me without an hour of work. It will resolve to NO otherwise.

See this related market asking whether the number will be over 50.

Feb 17, 3:18pm: Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than in 2021? → Will the phrase "effective altruism" be used in more New York Times articles over 2023 than over 2021?

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

Do podcast mentions qualify as articles? if so, it seems like there are 12, and this could resolve! Otherwise, it seems like two more articles are still needed this year.

predicted YES

@Nadja_L

It seems like a good idea to use the exact same search methodology for 2021 and 2023. If I don't count podcasts and run the searches now, then it's tied 8-8. If I do count podcasts, then 2023 wins 12-9.

I'm inclined not to count podcasts (and so wait before resolving this market). My best guess is that, when I first made these markets, podcasts were not included. For example, when I first made this market, there were 31 articles mentioning EA in 2022. Now when I run the search, I see 34 articles, of which 4 are podcasts. That would leave 30 non-podcast articles, which is closer to the 31 when I first made the market. But on the other hand, when I rerun the search for 2021, I see 8 non-podcast articles, which is further from the 9 I reported when I first made the market.

predicted YES

At 8 right now

bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

now at 7; 3 more before this resolves yes

predicted NO

Still nothing since february 👀

predicted YES

@Davida There have been 5 mentions though

predicted NO

regardless i stand corrected: there's a june 15 article! (the link for stories isn't sorted by date*)

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Underpriced (at <70c). 5 mentions already, and FTX-related attention will likely pick up again end of year with SBF trial, Michael Lewis book published (both scheduled for October).

bought Ṁ80 of NO

still at 5 according to the search 👀

bought Ṁ25 of NO

We're at 5 articles this year