Question resolves to "yes" if it shows up on IMDB's Japan upcoming releases, scheduled for a day before 2024-01-01, and then goes on to actually play in 1+ theaters on that date.
Question resolves to "no" otherwise.
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The physicist who supwevised Japanese tranlsation of TENET seems to start working on Oppenheimer. It's great progress but maybe there're a lot work left before the release?
https://x.com/shiro_yamazaki_/status/1720367388871495910?s=46&t=Khxp61wc9eNvWvAlVXFEWw
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/warner-bros-japan-criticizes-barbie-twitter-barbenheimer-posts-1235683885/amp/
Reasons to bet "no": it has no release date so far, whereas Barbie does. Opening weekend in the US has already passed so it's not like they were waiting on that. And, of course, a movie about the atomic bomb and its first usages, is perhaps not a great one for the country.
Reasons to bet "yes": apparently, Japan has a history of screening WW2 films without an issue, and delays in determining the release date are something that happens frequently.