Will Less Wrong's big red button be used on Petrov Day 2023?
49
304
720
resolved Sep 27
Resolved
NO

For 2022, see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26

Resolves Yes if there is a big red button or some equivalent and it is used for some destructive effect. The destructive effect could be taking down a home page or something else equivalent. Equivalence is based on my subjective judgment if there is a dispute.

I will not bet on this market.

Sep 26, 5:02pm: if the home page goes down and then comes back up again I expect to consider that a destructive effect. If the button is pressed via a security vulnerability, social engineering, or some other mistake, I expect to consider that a use of the button.

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If there's no button, does it resolve NO or N/A?

@StevenK NO if no button or equivalent

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Insider knowledge? 🤔

Page go boom in 2020, and the market thinks it go boom in 2022, but no boom in 2019 or 2021. So 50%?

We may be getting into a pattern where success one year lulls LessWrong into going bigger the next year and falling down.