For 2022, see https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KTEciTeFwL2tTujZk/lw-petrov-day-2022-monday-9-26
Resolves Yes if there is a big red button or some equivalent and it is used for some destructive effect. The destructive effect could be taking down a home page or something else equivalent. Equivalence is based on my subjective judgment if there is a dispute.
I will not bet on this market.
Sep 26, 5:02pm: if the home page goes down and then comes back up again I expect to consider that a destructive effect. If the button is pressed via a security vulnerability, social engineering, or some other mistake, I expect to consider that a use of the button.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ301 | |
| 2 | Ṁ161 | |
| 3 | Ṁ160 | |
| 4 | Ṁ153 | |
| 5 | Ṁ151 |
Page go boom in 2020, and the market thinks it go boom in 2022, but no boom in 2019 or 2021. So 50%?
We may be getting into a pattern where success one year lulls LessWrong into going bigger the next year and falling down.