Will 2023 be the hottest year on record? | Manifold Markets

Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?

79

closes 2024

45%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

Tomek's 🟡 specials

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Hard one. Climates getting hotter, but it's up against a lot of record breaking recent hot years

Say 1/6 chance. So probablity should be a little lower, but barely worth betting on

Tomek K 🟡bought Ṁ10 of NO

@CromlynGames we are early on, i hope that betting will be more tempting when we get data from some '23 months

Patrick Barryis predicting YES at 35%

@itsTomekK yeah, 4 months on, early indication is not for a cool year, put it that way!

Stevenbought Ṁ100 of NO

Equivalent market but with NASA data:

Manifold in the WildBot

Will 2023 be the hottest year on record?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Ten Shino bought Ṁ6 NO at 45% 🎁

brubsby bought Ṁ1 YES at 45%

Pdawg bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 45%

Michael bought Ṁ10 NO at 46%

Trevor bought Ṁ50 YES at 46%

Trevor sold Ṁ9 NO from 45% to 46%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 38% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 53% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 50% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 42% 🤖

Young Gailean bought Ṁ10 YES at 45%

BossM3dusa bought Ṁ12 YES from 44% to 45%

Spongpad bought Ṁ50 NO from 46% to 44%

peter janicki bought Ṁ50 YES at 46%

Alex Wilson filled limit order Ṁ130/Ṁ200 NO at 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ70/Ṁ100 YES at 47% (cancelled)

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ55 NO from 46% to 44%

humblestumble bought Ṁ2 YES at 46% 🎁

Alex Wilson filled limit order Ṁ68/Ṁ68 NO at 46%

Canlum bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 49%

Trong bought Ṁ3 YES at 48% 🎁

Amit Amin sold Ṁ12 YES from 49% to 48%

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ30 NO from 50% to 49%

Floris van Doorn created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 36%

Floris van Doorn created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 69%

Floris van Doorn created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 59%

Chris Canas bought Ṁ50 YES from 49% to 50%

Chris Canas bought Ṁ30 YES from 47% to 49%

Ben Chalmers bought Ṁ10 YES at 47%

Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ30 NO from 48% to 47%

Eugen Grue bought Ṁ50 YES from 46% to 48%

Eugen Grue bought Ṁ50 YES from 43% to 46%

Eugen Grue bought Ṁ50 YES from 41% to 43%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ47/Ṁ100 NO at 41% (cancelled)

Eugen Grue bought Ṁ95 YES from 38% to 43%

Alex Wilson filled limit order Ṁ78/Ṁ78 NO at 38%

Steven bought Ṁ100 YES from 36% to 40%

Abraxas bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 36%

Alex Wilson filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 35%

Ben Lutz bought Ṁ30 NO from 36% to 35%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 36%

Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ40 NO from 38% to 36%

Floris van Doorn bought Ṁ30 YES from 36% to 38%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 36%

Alex bought Ṁ100 NO from 40% to 36%

Alex Wilson bought Ṁ100 NO at 40%

Cpeter bought Ṁ10 NO at 40%

Alex Wilson filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 40%

Sidd Hartha bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 40%

Isabel J bought Ṁ20 NO from 43% to 42%

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Will a hurricane make landfall in Florida in 2023?87%

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Will a pandemic be declared due to H3N2 in 2023?12%

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2023?44%

2023: Will the WHO declare that the world reached the Sars-CoV-2 post-pandemic period?91%

DismalScientist

Will the WHO declare any new public health emergencies of international concern in 2023?37%

Will I catch Covid (again) in 2023?28%

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic in 2023?4%

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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2023 hurricane season?30%

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