Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a (you are here)
Yes but we have to apply the Elon Correction Factor
@Mqrius he was pretty accurate at targeting the 4/20 meme , I can't identify any memes in august, but I'm guessing he does 8/20. Using 4/20 as the root month, then 8/20 and 12/20