Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in August 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in August 2023?

Chris Billington

22

closes Sep 1

38%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-3ad8843e94db

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/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-fbe722e8728c

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-1a1f8e83089a (you are here)

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-341aad456b9d

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-f675db35214e

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98

/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa

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Blomfilterbought Ṁ90 of YES

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1662263704262680577

Mqriusbought Ṁ70 of NO

Yes but we have to apply the Elon Correction Factor

Blomfilteris predicting YES at 37%

@Mqrius he was pretty accurate at targeting the 4/20 meme , I can't identify any memes in august, but I'm guessing he does 8/20. Using 4/20 as the root month, then 8/20 and 12/20

Blomfilter bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 38%

Douglas Kaiser bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 37%

Josh Wilkes created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 40%

Trong bought Ṁ22 NO at 35% 🎁

Mqrius bought Ṁ45 NO from 40% to 35%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ5 YES from 39% to 40%

NamesAreHard sold Ṁ27 YES from 45% to 39%

NamesAreHard sold Ṁ23 YES from 49% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 NO at 49% (cancelled) 🤖

Chris Bigelow bought Ṁ100 YES from 35% to 54%

nacho bought Ṁ4 YES from 34% to 35% 🤖

eclair4151 bought Ṁ10 NO from 35% to 34%

The Oracle of Osaka bought Ṁ10 NO from 37% to 35%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ40 YES from 27% to 37%

Evgenii Sergin bought Ṁ50 NO from 33% to 27%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ15 YES from 29% to 33%

Mqrius bought Ṁ70 NO from 38% to 29%

MayMeta bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 38%

MayMeta bought Ṁ10 YES from 33% to 35%

NamesAreHard bought Ṁ20 YES from 27% to 33%

Birger sold Ṁ35 YES from 37% to 27%

MayMeta sold Ṁ16 NO from 34% to 37%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 34%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ100 NO at 43% (cancelled) 🤖

Blomfilter bought Ṁ90 YES from 22% to 48%

Adom Hartell bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

Mqrius bought Ṁ25 NO from 26% to 23%

Levi Finkelstein bought Ṁ1 YES from 25% to 26%

Mqrius bought Ṁ70 NO from 36% to 25%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 NO at 36% (cancelled)

Birger bought Ṁ35 YES from 25% to 39%

Mqrius bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25%

MayMeta bought Ṁ18 NO from 29% to 26%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot created limit order for Ṁ7 NO at 32% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled)

Christopher Kalitin bought Ṁ31 YES from 21% to 34%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ4/Ṁ100 YES at 21% (cancelled)

Berg sold Ṁ8 YES from 23% to 19%

MayMeta bought Ṁ1 NO at 23%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 23% (cancelled)

Berg bought Ṁ10 YES from 21% to 27%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 21% (cancelled)

Mqrius bought Ṁ45 NO from 27% to 20%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 27%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 42%

Al Quinn bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 35%

Mqrius bought Ṁ15 NO from 32% to 26%

Mqrius bought Ṁ15 NO from 42% to 32%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ15 YES from 24% to 42%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ40 NO from 50% to 24%

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