Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur in August 2023?
69
871
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resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.

For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.

I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.

The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.

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predicted NO

No road closures, not stacked, no FAA STA .... not happening today ;)

Static fire coming right now :)

predicted NO

Boca chica is subject to a tropical storm warning.

"tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours."

Only one day of delay makes or breaks this market, so even if it's nothing, if it slows them down it could make a difference.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/211440.shtml

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Interstage installation happening. I'm still not expecting an August launch but the hot-staging changes seem to be moving into place pretty quickly.

predicted NO

I will be so happy if I get wrecked by a day on this market

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington I sold all my positions for a tidy profit from 4% to 7% before posting the hype news, I'm pretty comfy now :D

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@Mqrius Nicely done. I'll definitely be buying more NO, it'll just be a question of when to do so to get the best price.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

they just poured 171 Truck loads of concrete today
https://twitter.com/CSI_Starbase/status/1675975526664622081
comments say concrete reaches significant portion of design strength after only 7 days

bought Ṁ500 of NO

@NamesAreHard are you familiar with these developments? Musk estimates pad and vehicle upgrades to be done in 6 weeks. From June 25th that gives NET August 6th. But that's before applying a healthy Musk timeline dilation factor.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Hell I feel like I better start betting September down too

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington It's usually a good bet to bet against space timelines, in my experience.

predicted YES

@chrisjbillington Yeah, I'm familiar, it's just that I have the sense that people correct for Elon time a bit too much and I'm betting against that. It's entirely possible that I'm just flat out wrong, though, I don't follow space developments very closely.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ70 of NO

Yes but we have to apply the Elon Correction Factor

predicted YES

@Mqrius he was pretty accurate at targeting the 4/20 meme , I can't identify any memes in august, but I'm guessing he does 8/20. Using 4/20 as the root month, then 8/20 and 12/20

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