France is currently debating a big pension reform ("réforme des retraites").
One of the most controversial topics debated is extending the retirement age needed to benefit full pension rights from 62 years to 64+ years (up to 67 in some cases in the initial government proposal).
The local public opinion is generally against it, with various polls estimating ~70% opposition.
The protests that took place on March 7th were described as the largest since 1995, when a previous pension reform was attempted, then dropped in the face of those country-wide large strikes.
The Senate is now debating the text, and has triggered a special process to fast-track debates into a sped-up vote by Sunday. After that, both parliamentary houses will have to take a definitive vote on the reform later this month.
This market resolves as YES if the final law that passes after deliberation by Assembly & Senate (and/or potential Article 49 usage) includes a retirement age >= 64 years.
Market resolution is expected before May 1st; will extend in the unlikely case the debates takes even longer.
Some background info:
(Image credit: Jeanne Menjoulet)
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ100 | |
| 2 | Ṁ86 | |
| 3 | Ṁ67 | |
| 4 | Ṁ47 | |
| 5 | Ṁ40 |
The law has been promulgated* following the approval of its bulk by the Conseil d'État.
*: see Journal Officiel - JORF n°0089 du 15 avril 2023: https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/texte_jo/JORFTEXT000047445077
@Fohai good call, this is maybe ambiguous in the initial market phrasing - updated to clarify that such a case won't be N/A but rather YES, as the final law that is promulgated would contain that updated retirement age, which is the main result I meant to predict here.
I created a market with a longer timeline because I think the government can give up after the vote : https://manifold.markets/DenisBaudouin/will-the-french-retirement-age-be-6
@DenisBaudouin thanks, that's indeed a possibility I'd love to differentiate predictions on.