Will anyone run a marathon under 2:01:00 in 2023?
67
376
1.3K
resolved Oct 8
Resolved
YES

This market resolves to YES if at least one runner finishes an officially sanctioned marathon (26.1 miles or 42.2km) race in less than 2 hours and 1 minute gun time.

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bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

LOL I was so absorbed by the other markets in the final miles that I forgot about this one, my own, and lost a lot. I didn’t expect the new WR, which I more or less expected, to be under 2:01. Incredible.

predicted NO

The two races to keep an eye on will be Berlin (9/24) and Chicago (10/8), where Kipchoge and Kiptum, respectively, are running. I would have liked it better to see them race each other but it is what it is.

predicted NO
sold Ṁ60 of NO

With Kipchoge running in Berlin and Kiptum opting out of the world championships to aim for the WR (where?), this seems likelier than I would have thought last year. If Kiptum also ran Berlin, which would be awesome, I wouldn’t be so sure, though they might both run under 2:01 for all we know. Crazy times.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=12105335

bought Ṁ40 of YES
predicted NO
sold Ṁ17 of NO

Does anyone know if Kiptum is planning to run Berlin this year?

Update: he’s running Chicago. Too bad.

predicted NO

Does Boston count as an "officially sanctioned marathon", despite being world-record ineligible?

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@jonny Yes. Though there’s no way anyone, including Kipchoge, will run under 2:01 there.

@NicoDelon If any runner came close to beating this time, the MBTA Silver Line bus would take them out before they cross the finish line.

predicted NO

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Kipchoge the only one with a good chance of doing it IMO but he won't do it at Boston, so the question is if he will run one in the fall

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@dominic I think he’s also eyeing NYC, the only other Major he hasn’t run, but maybe not this year and it’s also not a very fast race.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon His only real chance would be Berlin I think, barring some weird fast course I don't know about. If he decides to run it he would have a decent chance at breaking 2:01.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@dominic I think Kelvin Kiptum has a meaningful chance of achieving this too, he ran 2:01:53 on his debut in Valencia this year. It's possible he might run Berlin or Valencia again, and if he gets good conditions then who knows.

predicted NO

@jonny Good point. For some reason he was off my radar. His debut seems almost too good to be true—how do you move from being a good runner on the half to exploding the fastest marathon debut record, apparently training alone and with no coach? I’m assuming he’s clean, so he’s definitely a candidate.

predicted NO

@jonny Yeah Kiptum has a chance for sure. But I think his Valencia performance seems kind of like an outlier in that it will be very hard to replicate, let alone drop another minute. I'd say his chance of doing it is single digits.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@dominic That's right, you can't always count on getting a tailwind ;-)

sold Ṁ34 of NO

@dominic What do you think of his recent London performance? Does it make you update? Pretty darn impressive if he’s clean.

predicted NO

@NicoDelon Yeah it does, I now think he has a legitimate chance if he runs Berlin (maybe 1 in 3?). Especially if he ends up competing directly against Kipchoge there (not sure what their plans are)