We're considering a proposal to revamp the current homepage feed to make it primarily focused on news stories about current events. We would limit the news stories we display to ones from high quality publiclation that we've algrorithmically determined will be relevant to your interests, and will display 1-3 contextually relevant markets below each story. Read more here.
At the end of the year, all people working on Manifold will take a Yes/No vote. If the majority vote the Newsfeed as the most impactful new feature from 2023 this market will resolve YES. A split vote resolves NO.
If we decide not to implement this feature (or if the feature we do implement looks sufficiently different), I will resolve this market N/A (even if we do end up implementing it later).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,635 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,325 | |
| 3 | Ṁ795 | |
| 4 | Ṁ554 | |
| 5 | Ṁ94 |
People are also trading
@RobertCousineau yeah! The site is doing well lately. There seems to be more discoverability of old markets, too.
@DavidChee If you keep up organizing markets into coherent groups so they're easy to follow I can see a lot of people using it as the default, especially if they're less active and check the site only once a week or once a month. I would occasionally check this to see what news people are betting on, and I never used the old feed.
The biggest risk is that the news doesn't get updated or misses important markets. But I think it's the strongest contender for #1 out of the others, and I bought them all down and this one up.
@Mira Yeah, making sure to stay on top of curation will definitely be the make or break of this feature I feel! Thanks for the feedback!
@DavidChee Just want to say that I'm not sure I would have expected David's change yesterday to count for this market as the "News feed" since the original proposal was an algorithmic feed.
@JamesGrugett do we really need a new market about this feature? If the algorithmic version never really existed then the point is moot? Even if you do plan to do the curating algorithmically in the future, a manual implementation as a proof of concept makes a lot of sense as you can see how well it works as a feature
@JamesGrugett haha I said the same thing to Stephen in Discord but altho I also wasnt rly expecting it, I guess it's not unreasonable 🤷♂️
@JamesGrugett I think it would be fair to say that this would be "sufficiently different" for the market to resolve N/A
@Mira Or, I guess I should be in on the fresh alpha in the discord
@SG what's the criteria for whether this market resolves N/A? Since an initial version of the feature had been implemented but it hasn't yet been made part of the home page.
@ahalekelly This market won't resolve N/A. News stories are being displayed at least to some users on the homepage right now. (We're also working on a new iteration of News too.)
The typical Manifold user right now only seems to care about 30-year AI speculation, so I'm not sure how much value those users will get from headline news.
But, well-known news stories might give a better impression of the site to new potential users who aren't immersed in AI hype or meme markets.
So my question would be, how would this be presented to new users who aren't logged in and who don't have any interest data in the system? Top news stories overall?
Take the average embedding of last n markets user bet on, show similar ones on home page.
Let people bet $1 with their IP address (one per market per hour, and ~5-10 bets per ip) then transfer when they sign up
turn on word, user, and soft-embeddings muting. Have good defaults
Add a chat prompt and let people interact entirely with chat ☠️
@DavidChee idk what else you guys have planned, but i think it's more likely to revolutionize manifold than leagues or private groups