Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 1000 people by the end of 2023?
Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 1000 people by the end of 2023?
58
1kṀ9452
resolved Apr 15
Resolved
NO

Some examples that could resolve this to YES:

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how inappropriate a certain market question is.

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how Manifold as a platform allows people to incentivize assassinations or other bad actions.

  • A strongly critical news article on Manifold that achieves significant community spread.

A calm, well-reasoned discussion about the pros and cons of Manifold doesn't count. There must be outrage and anger in order for this to resolve YES.

Markets on various sizes of controversy:

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ133
2Ṁ120
3Ṁ114
4Ṁ92
5Ṁ76

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy