Protest: A protest refers to a public display of dissent, typically involving a group of people gathering to express their grievances, demands, or support for a particular cause or issue. Protests can take various forms, including marches, rallies, sit-ins, strikes, or other nonviolent forms of demonstration.
Riots: Riots involve violent or disorderly behavior during a public disturbance. They usually entail acts such as vandalism, destruction of property, looting, clashes with law enforcement or opposing groups, and other forms of aggressive or unlawful conduct.
Related questions
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Let's see if I can find a planned protest in less than 15 minutes using Google. So far:
https://www.sortiraparis.com/en/news/in-paris/articles/280371-gilets-jaunes-a-new-demonstration-this-saturday-july-22-in-paris-discover-the-route
August!
https://manifestationgiletsjaunesparis.fr/
this might be the best so far - multiple demonstrations in August in Paris.
OP should clarify protest size, but tbh no chance for any significant protest on the scale (country-wide) of the ones that we are talking about (2023 riots, 2019 yellow vests, 2023 retirement law, …) as the country halts completely during summer
@mdolr That’s not what this question is about. The creator defined protest and I don’t see why we should rule out a small gathering that fits the definition.
@NicoDelon A 2 person gathering counts as a protest by this definition but it's not worth reporting anywhere.
The question is tagged under the "French riot" topic which kinda means it's related to the current wave of nation-wide protests wort reporting not some random protest of 15 people in a random Paris district
https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/will-the-protests-over-macrons-pens-ec2f452f756b similar prediction was resolved as "yes" (i.e: no protests) despite some super small-scale groups still protesting on some random occasions, the vast majority has stopped overall
@mdolr "A 2 person gathering counts as a protest by this definition but it's not worth reporting anywhere." it's surprising to me that you bet NO knowing this.
@mdolr If this resolves NO because a protest (assuming one occurs) is not tied to the recent riots I’m sorry but that’s a straightforward misresolution.
@NicoDelon No that’s not what I meant, I’m saying if this resolves to yes because 10 people protested in the street without any media coverage as it’s a non-event it’s a misresolution, sorry if I wasn’t clear
I don’t think it’s about the context of the protest but more about if it’s a decent sized one
@mdolr Nowhere in the title or description does it mention size or coverage as a criterion. You’re making stuff up.
@NicoDelon how does OP, which is probably not french, has 100% coverage of what is happening in every street in paris, as by his definition any 2 person protesting in a random street would count as "YES" towards the question.
As I showed, similar questions have resolved to "no protest" despite there probably being some small scale protests in some random places but nothing worth reporting.
Oracle has to be some kind of news source which will only report minimum sized protest. Is it specified in the initial question ? No. Is it why I said op should specify the source used ? Yes.
Question is indeed tagged under the category "French riots" which I assume means some kind of size of protest / riots as the current definition is way too wide.
I'm not trying to make stuff up on purpose I'm confident that as long as OP is honest in what he considers a riot / protest by his definition the market wil resolve to "NO" but the current definition is too wide and will likely mislead people into believing "YES"
@mdolr It’s not tagged. It appears under the news because of the algorithm. The only tag is ‘France’.
Other questions are irrelevant.
Your intuitions about coverage are a red herring. Either there’s evidence or there’s not. If there is, resolves YES. Otherwise NO. Everything else you keep bringing up is irrelevant to the correct resolution.
@NicoDelon I'm already all-in can't invest more :(
I didn't notice the difference between tagging vs site categories my bad indeed thought it was the same!!
btw you just proved my point lol.
What evidence would you consider for market to resolve yes ? likely to be a news article of some sort ? Then it has to be a protest or riot which is big enough for the news to report
vs is the absence of evidence enough to resolve no ? Technically by OP's definition no as it's very likely that some micro 2-person protest / riot occured at some point
@mdolr Link to an article that says there weren't any protests in August (the onus should be on No as there have probably been protests in Paris in every month since early 1944 (World War II under Nazi occupation might have curtailed it)). That said, I think we can find an article that there were protests.
Note: even as high as 2% of moneyed prediction markets have BAD RULES. It's far more common on Manifold Markets and one of the most common issues is where the Title says or implies something different from the Rules.
@AaronKreider I saw your previous comment on the problems with manifold market and I completely agree with you don't worry!
I'm curious as to who would write on article saying there haven't been any protests though 🤔, it's a non-event / normal situation so it shouldn't be anything worth reporting by news companies, at the same time the absence of such an article would not mean there haven't been any protests / riots
@mdolr That lack of protests would be, I believe, a historical first since 1944 (or on second thought - possibly during the peak of the pandemic there might have been a month without protests in Paris). It'd represent a new level of apathy, a heat wave, pandemic, or authoritarianism and be very newsworthy.
Though it is the sort of thing that 1) nobody would realize and 2) nobody would write an article about.
I'd disagree with your statement on normalcy. The protests are the normal. Even China, Cuba, and Russia have regular protests.