📖MAP: Manifold And Predictive Studies
#️⃣Introduction
📖MAP is the research branch of 🏦BANK. We post important data and information that can help the community here. Additionally, we also post updates and a blog for both BANK and MANA. We are a non-profit.
Please provide us with any useful data about prediction markets, and tell us about useful tools as well. We will pay you to do so! Assisting 📖MAP can get you anywhere from 10-500 mana.
#️⃣Research work
Post 1
We observed something surprising with our first client for ⓂMANA: for a long time, the rationale for a particular answer posted on the market was ignored. Although it was later considered (as in the probability changing again) by some, this is still rather interesting. It usually means one of three things:
The bettors are just people gambling or betting on their favourite option
They do not care about the information given or don't consider it important or useful
They have information we don't and are using it to bet against our incomplete analysis.
Ultimately, we turned out to be wrong. But this shows us that a lot of the time, the primary method of profiting from prediction markets comes from having more information., which fits with the point of prediction markets, not as gambling on horse races, but as informed bets and decisions.
Post 2
Market creators provide liquidity to allow for better trading and less slippage, increasing the amount of profit traders can make. However, most of that liquidity is usually lost when the market resolves. Manifold compensates creators for this cost by increasing the trader bonuses. To profit from a market with a particular amount of liquidity, a market needs to reach a certain number of traders. This table also provides the optimal liquidity for a particular number of traders. We plan to build a tool to estimate the number of traders your market may get and suggest the optimal liquidity.
Fig 1:
Note that this does not include liquidity returned at resolution (usually minimal) or referrals.
Another thing we noticed is that, for many markets, referral bonuses are the fastest way to profit from the market. This is because we get 1000M from 1 referral. For example, in my chairs vs tables market, I got 3000M mana from referrals, dwarfing all the trader bonuses.
Conclusions: Surprisingly, the most likely to be profitable market type is 100 mana liquidity. I hope to get mods to change this, since it disincentivises high liquidity markets. I'm also offering 100 mana to anyone who can plot a graph of how many traders a market gets on average.
Post 3
@crowlsyong has developed a tool to place limit orders. It works very well and does all the calculations for you. I have paid them 50 mana for this. You can access the tool here.
They also developed this tool that allows you to arbitrage different, but duplicated markets at different probabilities.
Fig 2:
Post 4
We have now developed a tool to bet on markets using the Kelly criterion. It is based on some rudimentary Python (this is all the coding I know), but it works well. The tool can be accessed here.
This was developed with the help of ChatGPT.
🏦BANK and Ṁ MANA blog:
Post 1: 🏦 BANK
Dividends! We will be paying 15% of our total profit as a dividend for this quarter and 25% for all future quarters. Dividend information:
Expected dividends for investors:
Public stock investors - amount too small to pay, will match investment with Ṁ30 of my funds.
@Tumbles - they have around 27% of the amount given to investors, so they will receive Ṁ19
@crowlsyong - half of the amount given to investors - Ṁ35
RISK - 1/3 of @crowlsyong = Ṁ12
Total dividend paid: Ṁ66
Note: dividends will be paid Jul 1.
Post 2 🏦BANK
Stock split! We are doing a 10:1 stock split for 🏦BANK to facilitate easier investment. Don't worry, no mana will be lost.
E.g.
Initial investment = 5000
Shares received = 2500
New number of shares = 25,000
New share price = 2/10 = Ṁ0.2
New investment value = Ṁ5000.