AppleInsider Rumor Scores

Apple Insider Rumor Score Tracker

This dashboard was last updated June 12th, 2024

Brier Scores 🧑‍🏫

Brier Score Based on CSS Styling: 0.17

Brier Score Based on common word understandings: 0.20

Charitable Brier: 0.14

  • Assume they meant each word to be interpreted as the averages that I have calculated

Averages 💯

"Likely" rumors happen 90% of the time (sample size of 24)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨🟨 Min: 78%, Max 99%

"Possible" rumors happen 45% of the time (sample size of 21)

🟩🟩🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Min: 27%, Max 63%

"Unlikely" rumors happen 53% of the time (sample size of 8)

🟩🟩🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ Min: 18%, Max 88%

Context 📕

Apple Insider often reports on Apple rumors with a "Rumor Score" with scores of:

  • "🤯 Likely"

  • "🤔 Possible"

  • "🙄 Unlikely"

They very likely have vague terms like that to give an idea without getting too analytical and specific about it, but this is Manifold Markets, we didn't come here for (just) vibes, we came here for NUMBERS! ...So I'll be tracking these scores and trying to aggregate them into percentages and brier scores 😈

The CSS for their pages shows elements with the following fill percents:

  • Likely: 90%

  • Possible: 75%

  • Unlikely: 50%

Based on this helpful graphic from the University of Illinois CS Dept. median readers probably interpret these words as follows:

"🤯 Likely" Rumors

HomePod with big touchscreen likely isn't coming in 2024 (Feb 25, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-apple-announce-a-new-homepod-w (🔄47%)

/bjubes/will-apple-make-a-homepod-with-a-sc (🔄53%)

AppleInsider
HomePod with big touchscreen likely isn't coming in 2024
There have been rumors since 2020 about a HomePod with an integral screen, but a new report claims that it's not coming soon.

Resolved

There won't be any iOS 17 devices dropped off the supported device list for iOS 18 (Jun 10, 2024)

iOS 18 is getting the ability to lock apps with Face ID & a dark mode expansion (Jun 09, 2024)

Apple Vision Pro will get a polish, not an overhaul at WWDC (Jun 07, 2024)

iOS 18 AI boost could be called 'Apple Intelligence' (Jun 07, 2024)

iOS 18 to debut Apple Passwords app (Jun 06, 2024)

Apple will allow users to opt in to ChatGPT services in iOS 18 after deal with OpenAI (Jun 05, 2024)

Apple to increase trade-in value of older iPhones in new promotion (May 18, 2024)

Macs, iPad mini, and big AI announcements are not coming at Apple's iPad event (May 03, 2024)

Apple Pencil coming on May 7 could buzz users with haptic feedback (Apr 28, 2024)

More evidence surfaces that Beats Solo 4 are coming soon (Apr 23, 2024)

If you're expecting a Mac mini at WWDC, you're probably going to be disappointed (Apr 21, 2024)

Apple Notes in iOS 18 looks to up the ante with Microsoft OneNote (Apr 17, 2024)

Apple Pencil 3 may be able to be squeezed in multiple ways (Apr 10, 2024)

iPadOS 17.5 beta teases OLED display upgrade for 2024 iPad Pro models (Apr 10, 2024)

New iPads Pro, iPad Air, and USB-C accessories expected in early May (Apr 07, 2024)

You may need to wait a little longer than expected for a new iPad Pro & iPad Air (Mar 28, 2024)

Upcoming iOS 18 to offer more customizable home screen (Mar 24, 2024)

No iPad Air or iPad Pro announcement on March 26, says Gurman (Mar 21, 2024)

OLED iPad Pros still expected in March, with April availability (Mar 18, 2024)

Apple's iPad Air & iPad Pro refresh rumored to arrive on March 26 (Mar 18, 2024)

iPhone 15 Pro might ditch gold in favor of blues and grays (Aug 24th, 2023)

AirPlay upgrade part of expected inbound iOS 17 changes (May 28, 2023)

"🤔 Possible" Rumors

iPhone SE 4 rumored to be first Face ID iPhone under $500 (May 20, 2024)

TBD

AppleInsider
iPhone SE 4 will be first Face ID iPhone under $500
A new leak claims that Apple may increase the price of the forthcoming iPhone SE 4, but that it is working to keep it at no higher than $499.

Kuo: iPhone 16 Pro replacing blue with rose titanium color (May 19, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (TBD)

AppleInsider
Rumor claims new Rose Titanium option for iPhone 16 Pro lineup
TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has laid out his predictions for the color options for the iPhone 16 lineup, coming in the fall of 2024.

iPhone 16 Pro Max is going to be a bit bigger than the iPhone 15 Pro Max (May 16, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (75%)

AppleInsider
Mockup of iPhone 16 Pro Max much larger than iPhone 15 counterpart
Buyers of the iPhone 16 Pro Max may find the smartphone has grown compared to its predecessor, new images propose.

iPhone 16 may come in new color-infused green (Apr 30, 2024)

TBD

AppleInsider
iPhone 16 may come in new color-infused green
A leaker claims to have seen what Apple's rumored green color-infused coating for the iPhone 16 and maybe the iPhone 16 Pro looks like.

Apple's FineWoven cases rumored to get one final release (Apr 23, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (41%)

AppleInsider
Apple may release a final FineWoven set of cases in new colors
Apple has probably stopped production of its poorly-received FineWoven cases for the iPhone, but a new report from the same herald of its death says there is one last set of seasonal colorways coming.

All of the specs of the iPhone SE 4 may have just been leaked (Apr 17, 2024)

(TBD)

AppleInsider
iPhone SE 4 to include 'AI Photography' feature
A leak that is chiefly rounding up previous rumors about the iPhone SE 4 has added that it will have AI-based camera features, and contrary to expectations, will resemble the iPhone 13 more than the iPhone 14.

Rumor: iPhone 16 Pro camera coating could reduce lens flare (Apr 15, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (43%)

AppleInsider
iPhone 16 Pro camera coating will reduce flaring
A leak about the iPhone 16 Pro claims that a new coating will be used on the camera lens, which could cut back flares and improving image quality.

iPhone 16 Plus may expand to seven colors including white and purple (Apr 10, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (22%)

AppleInsider
iPhone 16 Plus may expand to seven colors including white and purple
A new leak claims that Apple is preparing to release the iPhone 16 Plus in more than the five colors of the current iPhone 15 Plus.

Apple may not release its own generative chatbot in iOS 18 (Mar 26, 2024)

/matija/will-apple-launch-a-chatgpt-competi (🔄76%)

AppleInsider
Apple isn't getting a generative chatbot -- yet
WWDC 2024 is just a few months away, and the company is gearing up to discuss artificial intelligence — but one key Apple-made feature may not make its debut in iOS 18.

3D-printed iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro models show off new Capture button (Mar 26, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-at-least-one-2024-iphone-model (81%)

AppleInsider
3D-printed iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro models show off new Capture button
The new designs for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro may have been revealed in these 3d printed dummy units.

Apple Watch Series 10 rumored to offer limited blood pressure monitoring (Mar 17, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-will-apple-announce-a-watch-with-s (55%)

AppleInsider
Apple Watch X may include blood pressure trend detector
A new report expects a kind of blood-pressure monitoring feature to be added to the Apple Watch Series 10, but there is an important caveat to that claim.

"🙄 Unlikely" Rumors

Sketchy rumor tries to pin down folding iPhone release date (Feb 20, 2024)

/Quadrifold/apple-to-release-a-foldable-iphone

AppleInsider
Sketchy rumor tries to pin down folding iPhone release date
A supply chain report out of Korea claims that Apple Vision Pro engineers have been reassigned to the "iPhone Fold" project to get the job done faster, but the details provided are questionable.