AppleInsider Rumor Scores

Apple Insider Rumor Score Tracker

This dashboard was last updated May 8th, 2024

Brier Scores 🧑‍🏫

Brier Score Based on CSS Styling: 0.16

Brier Score Based on common word understandings: 0.17

Charitable Brier: 0.13

Assume they meant each word to be interpreted as the averages that I have calculated

Averages 💯

"Likely" rumors happen 81% of the time (sample size of 16)

"Possible" rumors happen 52% of the time (sample size of 18)

"Unlikely" rumors happen 49% of the time (sample size of 8)

Context 📕

Apple Insider often reports on Apple rumors with a "Rumor Score" with scores of:

"🤯 Likely"
"🤔 Possible"
"🙄 Unlikely"

They very likely have vague terms like that to give an idea without getting too analytical and specific about it, but this is Manifold Markets, we didn't come here for (just) vibes, we came here for NUMBERS! ...So I'll be tracking these scores and trying to aggregate them into percentages and brier scores 😈

The CSS for their pages shows elements with the following fill percents:

Likely: 90%
Possible: 75%
Unlikely: 50%

Based on this helpful graphic from the University of Illinois CS Dept. median readers probably interpret these words as follows:

Likely: 70%
Possible (Probably/Probable): 70%
- I'm sus about this one, so I created a poll: /probajoelistic/-what-likelihood-does-the-word-poss (Average = 35%)
Unlikely: 20%

"🤯 Likely" Rumors

Apple Notes in iOS 18 looks to up the ante with Microsoft OneNote (Apr 17, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18 (50%)

iOS 18 to introduce new Notes app features including recordings and calculations

Exclusive: One of Apple's most inconspicuously popular apps, Notes, is bound to become even more powerful when the company unveils its next generation operating systems in June, AppleInsider has learned.

Upcoming iOS 18 to offer more customizable home screen (Mar 24, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18 (94%)

Upcoming iOS 18 to bring updates to iPhone home screen

Among a slew of new features reported to be coming to iOS 18 later this year, the home screen is said to be more customizable for users.

HomePod with big touchscreen likely isn't coming in 2024 (Feb 25, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-apple-announce-a-new-homepod-w (🔄51%)

/bjubes/will-apple-make-a-homepod-with-a-sc (🔄53%)

HomePod with big touchscreen likely isn't coming in 2024

There have been rumors since 2020 about a HomePod with an integral screen, but a new report claims that it's not coming soon.

Resolved

✅ Macs, iPad mini, and big AI announcements are not coming at Apple's iPad event (May 03, 2024)

✅ Apple Pencil coming on May 7 could buzz users with haptic feedback (Apr 28, 2024)

✅ More evidence surfaces that Beats Solo 4 are coming soon (Apr 23, 2024)

✅ If you're expecting a Mac mini at WWDC, you're probably going to be disappointed (Apr 21, 2024)

✅ Apple Pencil 3 may be able to be squeezed in multiple ways (Apr 10, 2024)

✅ iPadOS 17.5 beta teases OLED display upgrade for 2024 iPad Pro models (Apr 10, 2024)

✅ New iPads Pro, iPad Air, and USB-C accessories expected in early May (Apr 07, 2024)

✅ You may need to wait a little longer than expected for a new iPad Pro & iPad Air (Mar 28, 2024)

✅ No iPad Air or iPad Pro announcement on March 26, says Gurman (Mar 21, 2024)

❌ OLED iPad Pros still expected in March, with April availability (Mar 18, 2024)

❌ Apple's iPad Air & iPad Pro refresh rumored to arrive on March 26 (Mar 18, 2024)

✅ iPhone 15 Pro might ditch gold in favor of blues and grays (Aug 24th, 2023)

✅ AirPlay upgrade part of expected inbound iOS 17 changes (May 28, 2023)

"🤔 Possible" Rumors

Apple Vision Pro could launch in Japan very soon (May 01, 2024)

/mattyb/which-countryies-will-be-the-next-t (61%)

Apple Vision Pro could launch in Japan in early May

A reference to Apple Vision Pro accessories being excluded from a limited-time promotion in Japan hints that there may be an early May launch for the headset there.

(PRODUCT)RED is getting our hopes up for a red iPhone 15 (May 01, 2024)

/probajoelistic/will-the-iphone-15-launch-in-produc

(PRODUCT)RED drops hint about mid-cycle iPhone 15 color update

A photo from (PRODUCT)RED on social media is teasing us all about a vibrant red iPhone 15, but there is no detail beyond a cryptic reference to donuts.

iPhone 16 may come in new color-infused green (Apr 30, 2024)

TBD

iPhone 16 may come in new color-infused green

A leaker claims to have seen what Apple's rumored green color-infused coating for the iPhone 16 and maybe the iPhone 16 Pro looks like.

Apple's FineWoven cases rumored to get one final release (Apr 23, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (50%)

Apple may release a final FineWoven set of cases in new colors

Apple has probably stopped production of its poorly-received FineWoven cases for the iPhone, but a new report from the same herald of its death says there is one last set of seasonal colorways coming.

All of the specs of the iPhone SE 4 may have just been leaked (Apr 17, 2024)

(TBD)

iPhone SE 4 to include 'AI Photography' feature

A leak that is chiefly rounding up previous rumors about the iPhone SE 4 has added that it will have AI-based camera features, and contrary to expectations, will resemble the iPhone 13 more than the iPhone 14.

Rumor: iPhone 16 Pro camera coating could reduce lens flare (Apr 15, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (43%)

iPhone 16 Pro camera coating will reduce flaring

A leak about the iPhone 16 Pro claims that a new coating will be used on the camera lens, which could cut back flares and improving image quality.

iPhone 16 Plus may expand to seven colors including white and purple (Apr 10, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (22%)

iPhone 16 Plus may expand to seven colors including white and purple

A new leak claims that Apple is preparing to release the iPhone 16 Plus in more than the five colors of the current iPhone 15 Plus.

Leaked design resource hints at iOS 18's visionOS-inspired redesign (Apr 02, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18 (24%)

New leaked image shows iOS 18 with visionOS-like design

An alleged iOS 18 design resource surfaced on Tuesday, showcasing a new, glassy style that may take a page from the visionOS design book.

Apple may not release its own generative chatbot in iOS 18 (Mar 26, 2024)

/matija/will-apple-launch-a-chatgpt-competi (🔄52%)

Apple isn't getting a generative chatbot -- yet

WWDC 2024 is just a few months away, and the company is gearing up to discuss artificial intelligence — but one key Apple-made feature may not make its debut in iOS 18.

3D-printed iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro models show off new Capture button (Mar 26, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-at-least-one-2024-iphone-model (81%)

3D-printed iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro models show off new Capture button

The new designs for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro may have been revealed in these 3d printed dummy units.

Apple's big WWDC 2024 announcement may be an AI App Store (Mar 25, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-will-apple-announce-an-ai-app-stor (14%)

Signs of Apple's AI App Store could surface in June

Apple's AI strategy may not necessarily be to only offer the best AI apps it can produce, but instead deliver an enhanced AI App Store that may debut at WWDC.

Apple Watch Series 10 rumored to offer limited blood pressure monitoring (Mar 17, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-will-apple-announce-a-watch-with-s (55%)

Apple Watch X may include blood pressure trend detector

A new report expects a kind of blood-pressure monitoring feature to be added to the Apple Watch Series 10, but there is an important caveat to that claim.

Apple ID rebrand to 'Apple Account' expected in iOS 18 & macOS 15 (Mar 17, 2024)

/Gabrielle/what-will-be-announced-at-wwdc-2024 (60%)

Apple ID's 'Apple Account' rebrand expected this fall

Apple's potential rebrand of Apple ID to "Apple Account" has seemingly been corroborated, with the change allegedly arriving later in 2024 alongside the macOS 15 and iOS 18 releases.

AirPods Pro could gain hearing aid mode in iOS 18 (Mar 11, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-what-will-be-true-about-ios-18 (58%)

Update to iPhone 18 could add hearing aid mode to AirPods

The AirPods Pro could benefit from a new hearing aid mode in iOS 18, a report forecasts, with upgrades to the low and mid-tier models also expected sometime in 2024.

Resolved

✅ New iPad Pro rumored to debut with M4 chip (Apr 28, 2024)

❌ Apple Pencil 3 leak claims changeable magnetic tips are on the way (Sep 30, 2023)

✅ Apple could offer Thunderbolt cable for iPhone 15 Pro as separate purchase (Aug 25, 2023)

❌ iPhone 15 USB-C could change how physical SIM slots attach (Aug 21, 2023)

✅ iPhone 15 thinner bezels rumor supported by new leak (Jul 17, 2023)

✅ Rumor: All iPhone 15 cameras will be 48 megapixels (Jun 13, 2023)

"🙄 Unlikely" Rumors

Sketchy rumor tries to pin down folding iPhone release date (Feb 20, 2024)

/Quadrifold/apple-to-release-a-foldable-iphone

Sketchy rumor tries to pin down folding iPhone release date

A supply chain report out of Korea claims that Apple Vision Pro engineers have been reassigned to the "iPhone Fold" project to get the job done faster, but the details provided are questionable.

Apple buys domain suggesting generative AI additions may come to iWork (Feb 12, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-what-will-be-true-about-macos-15 (73%)

Apple buys iWork.ai domain, possibly signalling a major update

Apple owns hundreds of website domains but now it's added "iWork.ai," which could indicate that it has plans to highlight AI features in its applications suite.

Resolved

❌ Leaker casts doubt on 12.9-inch iPad Air 6 rumors as launch looms (Mar 18, 2024)

❌ Next 12.9-inch iPad Pro will be downgrade, says extremely unlikely report (Oct 20, 2023)

✅ Apple allegedly has a 12.9-inch iPad Air in the works (Oct 19, 2023)

✅ New MacBook Pro to arrive before end of 2023, claims questionable rumor (Oct 05, 2023)

❌ Both iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Ultra are coming, claims sketchy rumor (Sep 01, 2023)

✅ Apple Maps may offer lock screen navigation in iOS 17, claims iffy rumor (May 08, 2023)

❌ Final Cut Pro with feature parity due on iPad by 2024, claims iffy rumor (May 02, 2023)