Apple Insider Rumor Score Tracker

This dashboard was last updated June 12th, 2024

Brier Scores 🧑‍🏫

Brier Score Based on CSS Styling: 0.20

Brier Score Based on common word understandings: 0.23

Charitable Brier: 0.16

• Assume they meant each word to be interpreted as the averages that I have calculated

Averages 💯

"Likely" rumors happen 90% of the time (sample size of 24)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟨🟨 Min: 78%, Max 99%

"Possible" rumors happen 43% of the time (sample size of 20)

🟩🟩🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ Min: 21%, Max 64%

"Unlikely" rumors happen 53% of the time (sample size of 8)

🟩🟩🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ Min: 18%, Max 88%

Context 📕

Apple Insider often reports on Apple rumors with a "Rumor Score" with scores of:

• "🤯 Likely"

• "🤔 Possible"

• "🙄 Unlikely"

They very likely have vague terms like that to give an idea without getting too analytical and specific about it, but this is Manifold Markets, we didn't come here for (just) vibes, we came here for NUMBERS! ...So I'll be tracking these scores and trying to aggregate them into percentages and brier scores 😈

The CSS for their pages shows elements with the following fill percents:

• Likely: 90%

• Possible: 75%

• Unlikely: 50%

Based on this helpful graphic from the University of Illinois CS Dept. median readers probably interpret these words as follows:

• Likely: 70%

• Possible (Probably/Probable): 70%

  • I'm sus about this one, so I created a poll: /probajoelistic/-what-likelihood-does-the-word-poss (Average = 35%)

• Unlikely: 20%

"🤯 Likely" Rumors

HomePod with big touchscreen likely isn't coming in 2024 (Feb 25, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-apple-announce-a-new-homepod-w (🔄47%)

/bjubes/will-apple-make-a-homepod-with-a-sc (🔄53%)

Resolved

✅ There won't be any iOS 17 devices dropped off the supported device list for iOS 18 (Jun 10, 2024)

✅ iOS 18 is getting the ability to lock apps with Face ID & a dark mode expansion (Jun 09, 2024)

✅ Apple Vision Pro will get a polish, not an overhaul at WWDC (Jun 07, 2024)

✅ iOS 18 AI boost could be called 'Apple Intelligence' (Jun 07, 2024)

✅ iOS 18 to debut Apple Passwords app (Jun 06, 2024)

✅ Apple will allow users to opt in to ChatGPT services in iOS 18 after deal with OpenAI (Jun 05, 2024)

✅ Apple to increase trade-in value of older iPhones in new promotion (May 18, 2024)

✅ Macs, iPad mini, and big AI announcements are not coming at Apple's iPad event (May 03, 2024)

✅ Apple Pencil coming on May 7 could buzz users with haptic feedback (Apr 28, 2024)

✅ More evidence surfaces that Beats Solo 4 are coming soon (Apr 23, 2024)

✅ If you're expecting a Mac mini at WWDC, you're probably going to be disappointed (Apr 21, 2024)

✅ Apple Notes in iOS 18 looks to up the ante with Microsoft OneNote (Apr 17, 2024)

✅ Apple Pencil 3 may be able to be squeezed in multiple ways (Apr 10, 2024)

✅ iPadOS 17.5 beta teases OLED display upgrade for 2024 iPad Pro models (Apr 10, 2024)

✅ New iPads Pro, iPad Air, and USB-C accessories expected in early May (Apr 07, 2024)

✅ You may need to wait a little longer than expected for a new iPad Pro & iPad Air (Mar 28, 2024)

✅ Upcoming iOS 18 to offer more customizable home screen (Mar 24, 2024)

✅ No iPad Air or iPad Pro announcement on March 26, says Gurman (Mar 21, 2024)

❌ OLED iPad Pros still expected in March, with April availability (Mar 18, 2024)

❌ Apple's iPad Air & iPad Pro refresh rumored to arrive on March 26 (Mar 18, 2024)

✅ iPhone 15 Pro might ditch gold in favor of blues and grays (Aug 24th, 2023)

✅ AirPlay upgrade part of expected inbound iOS 17 changes (May 28, 2023)

"🤔 Possible" Rumors

iPhone SE 4 rumored to be first Face ID iPhone under $500 (May 20, 2024)

TBD

❌ Apple's FineWoven cases rumored to get one final release (Apr 23, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions

All of the specs of the iPhone SE 4 may have just been leaked (Apr 17, 2024)

(TBD)

❌ iPhone 16 Plus may expand to seven colors including white and purple (Apr 10, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-iphone-16-predictions (22%)

✅ 3D-printed iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Pro models show off new Capture button (Mar 26, 2024)

/eppsilon/will-at-least-one-2024-iphone-model (81%)

Apple Watch Series 10 rumored to offer limited blood pressure monitoring (Mar 17, 2024)

/probajoelistic/-will-apple-announce-a-watch-with-s (55%)

Resolved

❌ Apple may add Respiration Tracking to the Apple Vision Pro Mindfulness app (Jun 03, 2024)

❌ Kuo: iPhone 16 Pro replacing blue with rose titanium color (May 19, 2024)

✅ iPhone 16 Pro Max is going to be a bit bigger than the iPhone 15 Pro Max (May 16, 2024)

❌ Apple Vision Pro could launch in Japan very soon (May 01, 2024)

❌ (PRODUCT)RED is getting our hopes up for a red iPhone 15 (May 01, 2024)

✅ iPhone 16 may come in new color-infused green (Apr 30, 2024)

✅ New iPad Pro rumored to debut with M4 chip (Apr 28, 2024)

❌ Apple's FineWoven cases rumored to get one final release (Apr 23, 2024)

❌ Leaked design resource hints at iOS 18's visionOS-inspired redesign (Apr 02, 2024)

❌ Apple's big WWDC 2024 announcement may be an AI App Store (Mar 25, 2024)

✅ Apple ID rebrand to 'Apple Account' expected in iOS 18 & macOS 15 (Mar 17, 2024)

❌ AirPods Pro could gain hearing aid mode in iOS 18 (Mar 11, 2024)

❌ Apple Pencil 3 leak claims changeable magnetic tips are on the way (Sep 30, 2023)

✅ Apple could offer Thunderbolt cable for iPhone 15 Pro as separate purchase (Aug 25, 2023)

❌ iPhone 15 USB-C could change how physical SIM slots attach (Aug 21, 2023)

✅ iPhone 15 thinner bezels rumor supported by new leak (Jul 17, 2023)

✅ Rumor: All iPhone 15 cameras will be 48 megapixels (Jun 13, 2023)

"🙄 Unlikely" Rumors

Sketchy rumor tries to pin down folding iPhone release date (Feb 20, 2024)

/Quadrifold/apple-to-release-a-foldable-iphone

Resolved

❌ Leaker casts doubt on 12.9-inch iPad Air 6 rumors as launch looms (Mar 18, 2024)

✅ Apple buys domain suggesting generative AI additions may come to iWork (Feb 12, 2024)

❌ Next 12.9-inch iPad Pro will be downgrade, says extremely unlikely report (Oct 20, 2023)

✅ Apple allegedly has a 12.9-inch iPad Air in the works (Oct 19, 2023)

✅ New MacBook Pro to arrive before end of 2023, claims questionable rumor (Oct 05, 2023)

❌ Both iPhone 15 Pro Max and iPhone 15 Ultra are coming, claims sketchy rumor (Sep 01, 2023)

✅ Apple Maps may offer lock screen navigation in iOS 17, claims iffy rumor (May 08, 2023)

❌ Final Cut Pro with feature parity due on iPad by 2024, claims iffy rumor (May 02, 2023)