Marques Brownlee (@MKBHD) on X Announcement done

Marques Brownlee (@MKBHD) on X

iPhone Duo

ok, to simplify things, I'm going to say that "release" means to make it available for purchase (including preorder).

• Announcement with a delay wouldn't count.

• Announcement + preorders but no delivery would count.

• Available in store = obviously yes

I'm not sold that it has to require "iPhone" in the name explicitly, but it needs to basically be an iPhone. If they released something that looks and feels very different to the 18 series phones, e.g. more like an old flip phone, then that would be worth arguing about.

Also as the description says already, the screen itself needs to fold.

Am I missing anything? We need to agree to rules before the "release".

Thanks for the clarity @Gen ... I would agree with this based on:

Announcement + preorders but no delivery would count.

I think this is a likely outcome to be honest.

For me personally, 'release' means that Apple announces a foldable iPhone this year.

It should have the name 'iPhone' and it should have a foldable screen.

When (even if) the phone is available to purchase is secondary - this should be about their explicit intention to release a new phone category to the market and announcing this in a product 'launch' event.

@Shrill it's funny that you say an announcement would count, but then you describe the announcement as an "intention to release", which means you actually think release means to make available for purchase. lol. (see my new top level comment, argue if you want!)

Can’t wait to seeing this shit they are coming up with it? I fold!

Here's my interpretation:

Release = officially announced

Available = able to be purchased

For tech these are usually not on the same day.

EDIT: I have changed by interpretation, see comments below.

@Quroe please put together a non-biased group of users and deliver the interpretation of Manifold.

@EstMtz ok that's a good point, i withdrew my no bet

@EstMtz I think release means to make available, not to announce.

@Quadrifold please update the market context / description!!! much needed :D

@snazzlePop @bobalobascrob @Quroe looking back at previous iPhone launches, Snazzlepop is right. Announced vs released vs available. Announcement and release are not usually the same day, but released and available are usually the same day.

Betting NO. Apple's supply chain is taking a massive hit (literally google "Apple Supply Chain News") and is expected to worsen with the current geopolitical tensions. Decent likelihood of inducing a delay on the iPhone Ultra release.

Although poor stock performance (and Apple's recently atrocious earnings report) may warrant a flashy new product release early to boost investor confidence and raise market sentiment, there is a major risk for Apple! Due to weaknesses in the the supply chain, Apple can and will struggle to maintain a sufficient level of production for these new phones to sustain the product launch and growth stages for the iPhone Ultra, which would lead to a flop or a semi-flop (even accounting for the slight rise in product sales throughout the holiday season).

Apple has a strong incentive to avoid these risks (needs to preserve profit margins) and will likely delay the product release until these concerns are resolved (after 2027). Bet NO to win mana.

@bobalobascrob And of course, they will keep the rumors coming. Spreading rumors and tiny "leaks" is business 101 for increasing market hype and keeping investors engaged at near-zero commitment (and thus zero cost).

The real question is whether they will actually release the phone.

lmfao i just saw this: https://tech-insider.org/apple-foldable-iphone-2026-manifold-odds-96-percent/

@bobalobascrob haha that's amazing, they didn't even use their referral link so I can't track them down and thank them. Very cool though!

Not even a 5% chance of delay?

Needs clarification about if "release" means announced, available for sale, or delivered to customers.

@Quadrifold Bumping this, same question

@Gen Market @creator has been inactive for 9 months. I advise that some uninterested authority deliver a ruling on this soon.

@Gen Don't forget, you also have to clarify if it has to have 'iPhone' in the name.

I’m still kind of dubious on this happening, but I also didn’t expect rumors like this to keep coming

https://www.macrumors.com/2025/03/16/apple-foldables-mass-production-2026/

I’d be kind of surprised if apple ever launches a folding phone because they’re obviously terrible. But there sure rumours! If Steve was around they’d make a prototype and he would kill it for being garbage.

2026/27 is a realistic timeline.

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/apple-develops-a-foldable-clamshell-iphone

If Apple officially announces this in 2026 but they become available for purchase in 2027, how does this resolve?