Resolves YES if the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) past the Taiwan Strait median line exceeds 60 on any single day in August, according to official data published by Taiwan's government.

For context, the previous record was 56 on October 4 2021.

Resolution will be based on the daily Air activities in the southwestern ADIZ of R.O.C. (我西南空域空情動態) reports published by the R.O.C.'s Ministry of National Defense at https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF&Page=1 or if unavailable an equivalent source such as official announcement by the Taiwan government. This website is available in Chinese only but you can click on each daily report and see the counts even without knowing Chinese. See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10032/chinese-pressure-on-taiwans-airspace/ for more information. Resolution will follow the same procedure as Metaculus.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone#Taiwan for description and picture of the Taiwan ADIZ.

Background: With a potential visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, China has pressured/threatened the US to prevent the visit. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/politics/pelosi-taiwan-china-concerns/index.html

Biden administration officials are concerned that China could seek to declare a no-fly zone over Taiwan ahead of a possible visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an effort to upend the trip, potentially raising tensions even further in the region, a US official told CNN.

China could also respond by flying fighter jets further into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone, which could trigger a response from Taiwan and the US, the official added. They did not detail what a possible response would entail.

China has sent warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense zone identification zone many times in recent months, an act which does not violate any international law but which usually results in Taiwan taking precautionary defensive measures, including sometimes scrambling its fighter jets.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pelosi-taiwan-china-america-fears-escalation-beijing-washington-biden-rcna40229

“Should the U.S. side insist on making the visit, China will act strongly to resolutely respond to it and take countermeasures,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, arguing that the speaker’s visit would send the wrong message to advocates of independence for the island. “We will do what we say.”

China typically expresses its displeasure with developments in Taiwan by deploying more ships in the region, sanctioning companies that sell the island weapons or sending warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone, which Beijing already does regularly.

Aug 1, 11:14am: Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in August? (Increased tensions with a possible visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan) → Will China fly a record number of military aircraft close to Taiwan, potentially as a response to Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan? Specifically, will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in August?
Added clarification on the Taiwan strait median line. Taiwan only reports flights that cross the median line as incursions, and only those count here.
The Air activities in the southwestern ADIZ of R.O.C. page appears to be down currently. If it continues to be down, resolution will be by an equivalent official data source, such as official announcement by Taiwan's government.

Close date updated to 2022-09-03 2:59 am