Which country will build the first Military Space Station?
14
69
520
2031
75%
USA
32%
No country will do so
18%
China
14%
Russia

Resolution based on Credible News Reports.

A Military Space Station is a structure in a stable orbit (of Earth or other celestial bodies) with onboard military personnel.

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Market Resolution by the end of this decade. After which the Resolution date could be extended if any credible reports of future plans of this nature exist.

This Market is for speculation on future events, the past attempts of Soviet Union in building such infrastructure will not count towards Resolution.

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bought Ṁ20 No country will do so YES

Based on the requirement that the station needs to be manned by military personnel, this is a clear no. The consts and risks of putting people in a military satellite far outweigh the benefits.

@MikeAckermann same could be said about submarines. underestimating the sheer human instinct of expansion.

bought Ṁ10 USA NO

@notarealuser that was a quick response

Getting signals into space is as far as I know easier than into deep ocean, but still a good argument.

How will you resolve "no countries will do so;" does the market have a set timeframe?

@GazDownright By the end of this decade. After which the Resolution date could be extended(lol in 2030) if any credible reports of future plans of this nature exist.

@notarealuser this is unobvious rule. Add please to the description.

Without it, if you leave manifolf, moderator might resolve the market prematurely in 2030.

Better have a fixed or not have an end at all, than a sliding one. Brings a lot of ambigious cases

How does this interact with the military space stations the Soviet Union built before?

bought Ṁ3 Russia NO

@JoshuaWilkes question says "will build", so only events after the market opening count. Unless creator made a mistake

@JoshuaWilkes To my understanding none of the planned missions of Soviet Union's military space stations were carried out to success. At least not success by definition of the Resolution Criteria for this market.

@notarealuser

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaz two of them definitely were. I think it would be best to add a line as Kongo suggests ~

bought Ṁ5 No country will do so NO

Bet on which country will first build a military space station.

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