🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
Basic
345
229k
resolved May 6
January starts
February starts
March starts
April starts
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs
Resolved
YES
At least one share of nVidia stock is traded for $900 or more during normal, premarket, or aftermarket hours
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
US consumer product safety commission recalls a baby / kids product (not food/consumable)
Resolved
YES
The Detroit Pistons win a game.
Resolved
YES
@Tumbles pays off his Ṁ324,000 debt (due by end of month)
Resolved
YES
at least one xkcd comic where there are no stick figures at all
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
@ManifoldMarkets posts at least one April Fool on X (former: Twitter)
Resolved
YES
The "No Labels" candidate for President fails to poll higher than 15% for the entire month
Resolved
YES
Biden's approval rating 39.0% or higher at the end of Ramadan
Resolved
YES
Scottie Scheffler wins Masters
Resolved
YES
bitcoin btc halving happens
Resolved
YES
bitcoin reaches 60k or lower on the way back down
Resolved
YES
manifold pivot is announced
Resolved
YES
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
Resolved
YES
White House Correspondents Dinner
Resolved
YES
Every NBA team loses a game
Resolved
YES
the '500 poll' on manifold reaches 180 responses

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Resolves yes! @chrisjbillington won and hasn’t before.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #22a57c3da99a YES

This new NBC Boston article contains a claim that some students were hospitalized from the clearing of the Emerson College camp last week.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/college-campus-tensions-grow-over-pro-palestinian-protests/3352863/?amp=1

bought Ṁ50 Answer #22a57c3da99a YES

@Panfilo Since a lot of camps were cleared in the last few days, I’ll try to see if there are any other new articles trickling out.

bought Ṁ200 Answer #22a57c3da99a YES

@Panfilo Okay, this one is a more solid resolution: three people hospitalized for dehydration yesterday in the UT protest. https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Over-100-Arrested-at-UT-Austin-Amid-Pro-Palestinian-Protest-20240430-0002.html

sold Ṁ57 Answer #32aade28952a YES

The Braves game tonight counts regardless of when it finishes, right? (Assuming it's not suspended). The game starts at 9:40pm Eastern Time, so it likely won't finish until May in ET. Could theoretically go past Midnight Pacific Time, but rather unlikely.

@DanielTilkin Yeah, in past months we've gone by the start time for the game.

DanboughtṀ400the '500 poll' on ma... YES

Resolves YES 🎉🎉

reposted

LAST DAY!

bought Ṁ300 Answer #f0d16e8c0ee6 YES

@strutheo resolves YES

Why has the question about who leads in HumanEval been bid down so much? It's the last day of the month and there haven't been any new models released.

@SteveSokolowski Is it still highest in HumanEval? I see AgentCoder (GPT-4) at 96.3.

bought Ṁ150 Answer #131af71b01e2 YES

@SteveSokolowski Does it have to be the 0-shot score in order to count?

@ChadCotty If it was supposed to only be 0-shot I really think that should have been specified.

@MugaSofer I agree it was ambiguous.

@ChadCotty It also shows how these evaluations are limited, because Claude 3 Opus destroys GPT-4-Turbo in understanding code in practical use. Even within its own smaller context window, GPT-4 seems to forget things that are towards the beginning.

bought Ṁ200 Answer #22a57c3da99a YES

@SteveSokolowski I have no skin in the game and think this sounds like either No or N/A. The question does not say zero shot.

@Panfilo I think you mean No (or N/A). The question says Anthropic is in the lead, but they aren't. Who resolves this?

@Mactuary But the general “base” model absent additional specialized training (0-shot) is still in the lead.

@ChadCotty I do wish the question had specified. There's multiple ways to test this as the multiple leaderboards reflect.

bought Ṁ60 Answer #59c32cdaa23a YES
bought Ṁ970 Answer #280f47896a53 NO

3 or 4 depending whether you count blobs but not 5. No more expected.

bought Ṁ100 Answer #131af71b01e2 NO

@ChristopherRandles Agreed, resolves NO.

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