🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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May 1
January starts
Jan 2
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
7%
Earthquake 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
48%
NFL, MLB, or NBA player arrested for DUI
71%
a tesla catches fire as confirmed by tesla-fire.com/mainstream news
42%
NVIDIA reaches a new all time high stock price
28%
two teslas catch fire as reported by tesla-fire.com or other news
1.9%
The Detroit Pistons win multiple games.
3%
Starship Launch
90%
@Tumbles pays off his Ṁ324,000 debt (due by end of month)
27%
Dwarf Fortress Adventure Mode releases
5%
Alex Jones is banned/suspended on X
12%
Trump tweets at least once
6%
a successful coup occurs
57%
skibidi toilet releases at least two new mainline videos this month (even if individual parts)
99.4%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99.6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
4%
2 or more inches of snow fall in nyc
6%
William is King of The United Kingdom at any time during the month
1.6%
chris (strutheo) rolls a d100 die at market close, and it lands on a natural 1
1.8%
Weak AGI exists, as defined by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic having occurred at any time before the month concludes
10%
An outbreak of at least ten tornadoes causes significant damage in the United States

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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Biden's approval rating 39.0% or higher at the end of Ramadan

Isn't this his 'disapproval rating' at this point?

@GazDownright imagine if he had a market like this!

/strutheo/manifold-leadership-approval-rating

@Tumbles pays off his Ṁ324,000 debt (due by end of month)

@nmw lol what

@SemioticRivalry Crap, I forgot about the playoffs

opened a Ṁ1,000 Every NBA team loses... YES at 35% order
North Korea tests a rocket

Does a missile test count for this? I guess missiles and rockets are technically different, but it seems like it should count.

@Arky sure i count it

Hole in one during competitive play at Masters

Is this just the main event or do side events like par 3 contest count?

https://sports.yahoo.com/watch-augusta-resident-first-hole-173940953.html

bought Ṁ1,000 large tech company a... YES

@ChristopherRandles assuming he meant the main event with 'competitive play'

Solar eclipse causes serious injury to anyone (news must be from a reputable source)

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Two people visiting does not mean either of them were serious. Does it say anything else to suggest serious?

@ChristopherRandles Hmm, there's a paywall on the article now - I used to be able to see it in Google News. But I'm pretty sure there weren't any other details.

@ChristopherRandles Here's another source: Eye injuries after solar eclipse surge following phenomenon | Fox News.

"Symptoms my patients suffered included headaches, blurry vision, and nausea while one of my patients said he was seeing spots. Other symptoms can include a change in color vision," Nesheiwat added, saying she sent that patient to an eye care specialist, known as an ophthalmologist, for further treatment. "Then it was crazy, we were trying to make appointments for them with the eye specialists and all the eye specialists were booked up within an hour."

Biden's approval rating 39.0% or higher at the end of Ramadan

Ramadan ends at Dusk April 9th, I believe. Dusk varies so perhaps we should use time in Mecca? If so, then I see sunset as being at 18:32 on GMT+3. that is now.


538 has Biden approval at 39.6%

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

5 April 1310

I don't know what the media reports say, but my impression of the traffic yesterday was NO. The reason is that automated routing has greatly improved since 2017.

By using automated routing apps I was able to drive from Sandusky to State College in only 5 hours and 55 minutes, compared to 4 hours and 25 minutes in the morning.

There were several places where 80, which I has used entirely in the morning, was moving at 12 miles per hour. But Cleveland had basically shut down for the day, and so there was a steady stream of moving traffic routed through the city. Then, at 11:00pm, with traffic from Erie merging onto 80, a stream of cars was sent on a 30 mile detour through switchbacks along rural roads where one family was amazed watching thousands of cars drive past their block at midnight, and again that saved 40 minutes.

Even though phone apps existed then, I don't think that most cars offered access to live traffic data for free on inbuilt navigation systems, so people would just input the route and be sent on the largest roads. It was interesting seeing how every east-west road except the interstates was automatically routed so that traffic was moving just below the speed limit.

@SteveSokolowski

You aren’t trolling?

Sandusky???

Come on 😆

Does your GPS work for travel to Epstein Island too?

Well played. Haha this guy 🙄

@nmw I'm not sure what you're talking about; there's no joke. Maybe there's a coincidence between the names of the two cities, but I went to Sandusky because it had the lowest cloud cover. Here's an HDR image of the city.

I didn't even know Sandusky existed before I got to central Ohio and started looking up to see where the clouds were.

@SteveSokolowski

We both know what I’m referring to

@nmw i didnt remember what you were referencing until you posted it

@strutheo

If this was unintentional

“By using automated routing apps I was able to drive from Sandusky to State College in only 5 hours and 55 minutes, compared to 4 hours and 25 minutes in the morning”

I say someone has a sense of humor

OP or God laid down some serious punnage weight

I still say well done if unintentional 😏

@nmw im lost sry

@strutheo

No worries. Will fill you in

@nmw no i know who he is, i dont get the joke of the travel times or w/e