If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
91
2.1kṀ5055
2030
62%
chance

  • Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China

  • Resolves No otherwise

  • Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan

"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.

  • If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes

Wars
United States
China
Military
China Taiwan potential conflict
Taiwan
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?
23% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
31% chance
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
68% chance
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
69% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
21% chance
(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
Sort by:

This along with the Taiwan invasion market implies a 26.6% chance of direct conflict with China before 2030. We're in trouble

Subsidized & boosted 1kM$.

predictedYES

Under what circumstances would it resolve N/A?

predictedYES

@PipFoweraker N/A if China does not invade Taiwan by close date. I’ll update the description

What if US uses force against Taiwan:

No way, america isn't doing anything for taiwan.

predictedYES

@DuSusisu Put some Mana on it then boi

@DuSusisu Biden said explicitly several times that they would, despite his advisors trying to stop him from saying this.

He would do it.

predictedNO

@DavidBolin What if Trump was President though. Or some other Republican?

Trump is about as unpredictable as MMA.

You’d think though with his hatred of china he’d intervene. But it’s not out of the picture Xi pays him a golf course to turn a blind eye.

People are also trading

[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?
23% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
31% chance
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
68% chance
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
69% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
21% chance
(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
49% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules