If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030
92
2.1kṀ62502030
48%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if US directly uses it's military force against China
Resolves No otherwise
Resolves N/A if by close date China has not invaded Taiwan
"Invasion" is any attempt to establish a ground presence on the island of Taiwan with military force.
If China attempted a landing on Taiwan but was entirely thwarted by a US attack this would still resolve Yes
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
50% chance
Will there be an armed conflict between China and the US before the end of 2030?
24% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
43% chance
Will the US station 100 soldiers in Taiwan before 2030?
68% chance
In case of a take-over attempt by 2035, will Taiwan put up a fight versus China?
74% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
29% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
(Before 2030) How will China actually initiate the annexation of Taiwan?
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before 2030?
56% chance