In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
15
Ṁ1.1kṀ6.3k2036
0.6%
2024
0.6%
2025
0.8%
2026
4%
2027
13%
2028
17%
2029
16%
2030
10%
2031
8%
2032
7%
2033
6%
2034
6%
2035
12%
This will not have happened before the end of 2035.
First year where (number of Starship launches that year) > (number of Falcon 9 launches that year).
Any launch that clears the pad counts as a launch. Suborbital launches count. Falcon Heavy doesn't count towards the Falcon 9 number.
If either rocket is renamed but is still obviously the same rocket, it still counts towards its previous name. If either rocket is redesigned but keeps the same name, it still counts.
If SpaceX is renamed, acquired, or splits up, any launches of these rockets by any such successor companies still count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@wilsonkime It's dependent multiple choice; options cannot resolve separately.
If I was making this market today I would have done an independent "will it happen before X date" one, but I can't change this one.
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