Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?
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For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.
Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement. HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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