Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Space•Space exploration•Spacex•Moon•Commercial spaceflight•Moon landers

Ṁ322

Ṁ190

2027

78%

chance

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For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement. HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.

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Do you mean "the first Starship Cargo to attempt to land on the moon will do so suucessfully" or "the first Starship Cargo to fly in space will successfully land on the moon"?

@JoshuaWilkes "Starship Cargo" is the working name for a mission to the moon in 2026 that is going to deliver (I think) this thing [1] among others. For this market, "Starship Cargo" is going to be any derivative of Starship which carries some useful non-human payload to the moon. I'll make the resolution criteria more clear once SpaceX announces what the mission is actually going to be like, but it's on the books for 2026 so that should happen fairly soon. I don't expect it to be ambiguous at all, but there isn't currently any more specific information. Other Starships which may or may not carry cargo are not "Starship Cargo" (unfortunate proper noun).

It's most likely going to be an HLS derivative, but probably modified since it will need no pressurized volume.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WCpIwGnXrw

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@Sailfish so basically, by definition to qualify for this question a mission will need to attempt a landing/

@JoshuaWilkes Yeah, "Starship Cargo" is just the name of this specific lunar mission. It needs to land on the moon and to be the first of these contracted missions delivering useful payloads. Prior to this there may be an HLS test, which will not count for this market, or an empty Starship landing test, or missions elsewhere using Starship, none of which will count.