When the Starship upper stage makes a landing with people on board, for the first time, where will it do it?

If a Boca Chica pad is destroyed and rebuilt in approximately the same location, it will count as though it were the same pad. Otherwise I'll a add new answer.

If a manned landing fails, then the last thing I'll care about is this stupid market ... but it'll count for the planned location.

Edit: Will SpaceX's HLS (Human Landing System, their NASA-funded Moon Lander) count as a "Starship"? The current design of HLS is widely recognized as a variety of Starship. So long as the final design meets these criteria, it will be considered "Starship" for this market:

• Steel-ring construction

• Same diameter as other Starship variants

• Launched from Earth as a second stage, on top of Booster.

I won't bet in this market.