By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
13
549
2026
10%
2025/01/01
21%
2025/04/01
39%
2025/07/01
42%
2025/10/01
50%
2026/01/01
58%
2026/04/01
65%
2026/07/01

Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.

Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star

Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting

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Would reflying only a booster count, if it has been above 100km? Or is this about upper stage only?

@Mqrius Only the upper stage counts for this market. I do have a separate market for the first stage though. https://manifold.markets/TimDuffy/by-when-will-spacex-refly-a-super-h

I would strongly suggest doing this as a "choose one answer" market, where each entry represents a time range:
2024, 2025Q1, 2025Q2, 2025Q3... After 2026

@DavidFWatson Is there a reason you think it's better? I prefer this format to lots of mutually exclusive options, it is in part based on this question by @jack which I really like: https://manifold.markets/jack/by-when-will-there-be-a-3rd-starshi

@TimDuffy I think that the various options are fundamentally linked, but when you use non-exclusive options, we have to depend on market makers coming in and constantly making bets to make sure that the probability for 7/1/2026 is higher than the probability for 4/1/2026.

@DavidFWatson That doesn't seem to be a problem with the market I linked, but I agree that could be an issue in theory, especially since this market is likely to have lower liquidity. We'll see how it plays out on this question. I'll take the performance of this market as well as your comment into consideration when making markets on when things will happen in the future.

@TimDuffy Sure, and it's really expensive to switch, so it's totally reasonable to leave it if you want

@DavidFWatson FYI I just learned today that linked choose one answer markets cannot have individual options resolved, which makes me think that the way I've set up the question is superior despite the possible monotonicity violations. More discussion of it here: https://manifold.markets/notarealuser/when-will-orbital-flight-test-3-of#vxa6o8kOP5X7YFHAeJD7

@TimDuffy Oh dang, that's a very good point! Ok, I'm 100% on board for using multiple selection for handling time-based buckets like this one.
I think date buckets are both common enough and different enough from other forms of markets that it should probably be added as a new type of market.

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