By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
19
1.2kṀ48222026
1%
2025/10/01
6%
2026/01/01
29%
2026/04/01
56%
2026/07/01
72%
2026/10/01
85%
2027/01/01
Resolved
NO2025/01/01
Resolved
NO2025/04/01
Resolved
NO2025/07/01
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
4% chance
When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
By when will first Starship be reused?
Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?
Will there be four or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
29% chance
Will there be two or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
86% chance
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025?
23% chance