By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
90
15kṀ200k
2026
1%
11
3%
12
57%
15
90%
20
Resolved
NO
6
Resolved
NO
8
Resolved
NO
10
Resolved
NO
7
Resolved
NO
9

Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight. Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.

For details, this question will use the same criteria as these:

/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars

/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos

/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh

Answers are for "on or before flight number X", so if they succeed on flight 11, then answers 11, 12, 13, etc. all resolve Yes, regardless of the outcome of flight 12.

I'll add more answers as future flights approach, as indicated by prices on existing answers.

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@EvanDaniel Would they announce beforehand if they were going to attempt something like that?

bought Ṁ1,500 NO

@Eliza I assume so. They've announced booster catch plans or lack thereof fairly consistently. They file NOTAMs for splashdown zones.

They'd need a different FAA license, and eventually we'd see it in their flight plan. Elon might tweet about it before any of that.

Can you add an option for 11?

@SimonWestlake I'm not sure I want to spend the mana on that, but I made it so or people can add options. Go for it if you want!

opened a Ṁ2,500 NO at 8% order

@SimonWestlake Added it.

9 Resolves No

bought Ṁ200 NO

@EvanDaniel 8 resolves NO

@mods

@RyanTyznar alright, I can resolve on behalf of Evan.

@Eliza any chance you can resolve this one too?

I think adding 11 is worthwhile now given the distribution currently puts it at about 60-70%

@RyanTyznar agreed!

7 Resolves No

@EvanDaniel
6 can resolve no

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