By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster? | Manifold

By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?

77

13kṀ150k

2026

1.3%

10

42%

12

90%

20

Resolved

NO

6

Resolved

NO

8

Resolved

NO

7

Resolved

NO

9

Both must be on solid ground or a landing ship, mostly intact, and stationary, on the same flight. Starship must have flown to over 100 km on that flight.

For details, this question will use the same criteria as these:

/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars

/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos

/EvanDaniel/which-happens-first-starship-superh

Answers are for "on or before flight number X", so if they succeed on flight 11, then answers 11, 12, 13, etc. all resolve Yes, regardless of the outcome of flight 12.

I'll add more answers as future flights approach, as indicated by prices on existing answers.

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Can you add an option for 11?

@SimonWestlake I'm not sure I want to spend the mana on that, but I made it so or people can add options. Go for it if you want!

9 Resolves No

bought Ṁ200 NO

@EvanDaniel 8 resolves NO

@RyanTyznar alright, I can resolve on behalf of Evan.

@Eliza any chance you can resolve this one too?

I think adding 11 is worthwhile now given the distribution currently puts it at about 60-70%

@RyanTyznar agreed!

7 Resolves No

@EvanDaniel
6 can resolve no

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Will there be two or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?

+9% 1d70% chance

Which happens first: Starship / Superheavy recovery or second crewed Starliner flight?

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?

How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?

Related questions

Will there be two or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?

Which happens first: Starship / Superheavy recovery or second crewed Starliner flight?

Before which Starship flight will SpaceX first announce they will *attempt* at least one orbit?

When will a Starship booster first relaunch in under 24hrs?

How many launches will there be before Starship is recovered (3-13)

When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?

When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?

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