Nathan's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.24
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Nathan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
- Will Manifold create an easy-to-use betting mechanism to limit-arbitrage various markets with only a few clicks by end of 2023?NOṀ10
- Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023?NOṀ10
- 5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?NOṀ10
40%
- Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?YESṀ10
- Will OpenAI or DeepMind make a public announcement that they intend to delay some work that would improve AI capabilities due to safety/alignment concerns?NOṀ10
- Will an LLM autonomously operate a business that generates more than 600 USD in profit before 2024?NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- The alignment techniques available in 2023 will be insufficiently 'sticky' to prevent a maleficent human actor with their own copy of the model (code and weights) from easily turning the model to whatever ends they choose.YESṀ100
- By the end of 2023, Manifold will add the option for users to selectively hide topics and specific markets from appearing on their feeds.YESṀ100
- All prediction markets are motivation markets. Is it true that this force is not disproportionately more useful for antisocial ends (assassination markets) than pro-social ends (charity impact markets)?YESṀ100
95%
- Will Valinor unfuck its backyard eating area by April 1st.YESṀ180
- Will someone commit suicide as a result of instructions/recommendations/insults/suggestions from an AI chatbot by the end of 2024?YESṀ95
- All prediction markets are motivation markets. Is it true that this force is not disproportionately more useful for antisocial ends (assassination markets) than pro-social ends (charity impact markets)?YESṀ50
97%