89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?
97%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$4,654 bet
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
M

M bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

> Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
AlexPower

Alex Power bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
aps

aps bought M$10 of YES2 months ago

@hagi if it does so and getting sued makes it actually shut down this play money section, i.e. it becomes unalive, then the payout probably won't matter no?
hagi

hagi bought M$5 of NO3 months ago

I'll take the +2400% of 5 funny money on the chance that Manifold introduces a crypto currency and rightfully gets sued into oblivion. Though I think that the getting successfully sued part is probably on the 2023 roadmap instead.
marthinwurer

marthinwurer bought M$20 of YES3 months ago

Buying yes because there's basically no downside
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet bought M$25 of YES4 months ago

Cool good to hear!
JamesGrugett

James Grugett 4 months ago

We're not doing real names. None of the founders were ever behind that proposal!
LarsDoucet

Lars Doucet 4 months ago

Yeah same here. Given the target audience I think requiring real names could be a mistake.
LucaMasters

Luca Masters 4 months ago

I was pretty strong yes, and then I saw the "real name" resolution and now I'm much less bullish.
NathanYoung

Nathan Young 4 months ago

Yeah, you need the ability to borrow now and pay if you're wrong. That's what NO should be in cases like this.
Austin

Austin 4 months ago

Hm, buying NO here is a bit like betting that AI will kill all humans: what's your money worth if you win?