89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?
ACX 2022 Predictions
Mini
100
Ṁ7.9k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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predicted NO

If, hypothetically, a DoS attack took the server down on Dec 30 and it didn't come back until Jan 2...would this resolve to "No"?

Asking for a friend.

> Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
@hagi if it does so and getting sued makes it actually shut down this play money section, i.e. it becomes unalive, then the payout probably won't matter no?
I'll take the +2400% of 5 funny money on the chance that Manifold introduces a crypto currency and rightfully gets sued into oblivion. Though I think that the getting successfully sued part is probably on the 2023 roadmap instead.
Buying yes because there's basically no downside
Cool good to hear!
We're not doing real names. None of the founders were ever behind that proposal!
Yeah same here. Given the target audience I think requiring real names could be a mistake.
I was pretty strong yes, and then I saw the "real name" resolution and now I'm much less bullish.
Yeah, you need the ability to borrow now and pay if you're wrong. That's what NO should be in cases like this.
Hm, buying NO here is a bit like betting that AI will kill all humans: what's your money worth if you win?

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