89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?
100
34
260
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES
From Scott Alexander's Prediction Market predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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predicted NO

If, hypothetically, a DoS attack took the server down on Dec 30 and it didn't come back until Jan 2...would this resolve to "No"?

Asking for a friend.

bought Ṁ20 of YES
> Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Of course there is no action if Manifold Markets shuts down, so the only bet to make here is on "YES".
bought Ṁ10 of YES
@hagi if it does so and getting sued makes it actually shut down this play money section, i.e. it becomes unalive, then the payout probably won't matter no?
bought Ṁ5 of NO
I'll take the +2400% of 5 funny money on the chance that Manifold introduces a crypto currency and rightfully gets sued into oblivion. Though I think that the getting successfully sued part is probably on the 2023 roadmap instead.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Buying yes because there's basically no downside
bought Ṁ25 of YES
Cool good to hear!
bought Ṁ1 of YES
We're not doing real names. None of the founders were ever behind that proposal!
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Yeah same here. Given the target audience I think requiring real names could be a mistake.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
I was pretty strong yes, and then I saw the "real name" resolution and now I'm much less bullish.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Yeah, you need the ability to borrow now and pay if you're wrong. That's what NO should be in cases like this.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Hm, buying NO here is a bit like betting that AI will kill all humans: what's your money worth if you win?