This market resolves YES. I will place 4 bets on NO.
23
11
450
resolved Jan 18
Resolved
YES

Each bet will be of amount 1/4 of the market liquidity at the time. Other than those 4 bets, I will not bet on this market.

Close date updated to 2023-02-13 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ113 of NO

Out of curiosity, how come no one bet on NO in order to sell after I placed my bets, since you knew they were coming?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Oh yeah, that would've been smart maybe! I didn't think about it

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Ignoring capital limitations (which I think is reasonable given the relatively small available quantity of NO to bet against), it doesn't matter the order that you execute the trades, only the prices you execute them at. So betting NO at 99% and then later selling by betting YES at 90% is entirely equivalent to first betting YES at 90% and later selling by betting NO at 99%. Furthermore, when the market resolves YES eventually, that is essentially equivalent to letting everyone buy an unlimited quantity of NO for free. Given that, there is no benefit to buying NO earlier at a worse price (again, ignoring cost of capital). Rather the best way to optimize profit is to just buy YES at the best prices you can get and wait for resolution to redeem it.

predicted NO

Apologies for the error. I had set myself some reminders to place my bets before this closed, but I got a bit behind on keeping up with those reminders. Hopefully this free mana will make it up to you.

predicted NO

Ah, I failed to place all my bets before market close. Oops. I didn't consider that.

What's the fairest thing to do? Reopen for a few more days?

predicted NO

I'll take that as a YES. Reopening.

sold Ṁ1,030 of YES

@IsaacKing Oof. Bailing out. Not worth holding at this price for that long.

bought Ṁ108 of NO

I'll close it as soon as I place the final bet, which I'll do at an arbitrary time.