Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
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resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024

Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful too.

In most states, being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody. I suspect that once we know which state indictments occur in, we'll have more detail on the process in scope.

We'll likely also have reports in the media.

Additional answer from January:

If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/booking

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predicted NO

I disagree with the resolution of this market.

@ThomasHabets I was also voting no, but he very cleared was booked by the police

@PhatFree Clearly*

predicted YES

@ThomasHabets Can you provide some evidence about why it’s reasonable to disagree with the resolution? I would love to see a source that he was not in police custody. He has even made statements himself in the last 24 hours about his trip to NYC.

predicted NO

@ThomasHabets Trump was arrested on April 4th.

predicted NO

@geirby "being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody". That is what I have not seen happen. And specifically those words were what I used to vote no. He went there, chatted, sat with his lawyers, and left. In layman's terms.

predicted NO

Obviously he would be arraigned, and that would get a yes from me.

predicted NO

Sorry, I can't fix my comment. Specifically "that would have gotten a yes from me".

predicted YES

@ThomasHabets The question is this: While he was being arraigned, was he free to leave?

predicted NO

"Upon entering the courthouse, he was put in police custody and placed under arrest".

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor And was he? That's extremely not clear. We know that he did not have a mugshot taken, and was not handcuffed. If he had made some excuse to leave, would they have let him? A normal person being arrested, absolutely not. Trump? Yeah, my bet (literally, on this market, which is my point) is that they would have let him leave.

predicted NO
predicted YES

@ThomasHabets Your responses sound like speculation. Do you have any evidence or sources that say he was not in police custody?

I’m willing to hear what you have to say, but speculation is only fun for theoretical discussion, and doesn’t change how this market should have been resolved. It’s been reported from several sources that he was arrested, and I can only resolve based on evidence and the law.

predicted NO

@Dustin This whole site is "only fun". Exactly what I expected (and dare I say "hoped") to happen happened, yet the way I read the market I disagree. Basically this market titles "arrested", and then the description is a bit all over the place about the semantics of the word "arrested". (cue Clinton's “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”)

@Mirek grow up.

predicted NO

@ThomasHabets You're on crack bro.

predicted NO

@PhatFree I went by the wording in this market, not just reading the title. That was my mistake.

predicted YES

@ThomasHabets This wording in the market also clearly supports YES resolution:

If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/booking

He was booked (fingerprinted)

predicted NO
predicted NO
predicted YES

I’ve now seen video evidence as well as multiple written sources confirming that Donald Trump has been arrested and is police custody. The evidence is sufficient for me to resolve YES

predicted YES
predicted YES
predicted YES

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