Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024
Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful too.
In most states, being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody. I suspect that once we know which state indictments occur in, we'll have more detail on the process in scope.
Just put another 200 down on NO. My portfolio after Trump SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTS before the officers can get the cuffs on:
Thanks for the money YES bettors :) ❤
"said he likely will be arraigned next week. The indictment has been filed under seal and will be announced in the coming days. Charges are not publicly known at this time, one source told CNN."
Looks like no arrest and straight to the judge.
@Firechyld I read that he's expected to surrender himself to authorities prior to his arraignment.
That would be an arrest. Just a voluntary arrest.
He could also be arrested after his arraignment, or at any later point. It's just about whether he is subject to their custody and has no sufficient control over his own movement.
"Another major step after a grand jury indictment is the defendant’s arrest. An arrest is when an individual has been taken into custody for suspicion of committing a criminal act.
In certain cases, prosecutors may offer a defendant who already has legal counsel prior to the indictment an opportunity to turn themselves over to the police voluntarily for processing, experts say.
Trump's aides and legal team have been preparing for the possibility of an indictment. Should that happen, he would be arrested only if he refused to surrender.
Trump’s lawyers have previously said he would follow normal procedure, meaning he would likely agree to surrender at a New York Police Department precinct or directly to Bragg’s office.
@Blomfilter Although we have not located any Washington cases directly addressing whether accepting into custody a person who voluntarily surrenders is an arrest, the United States Supreme Court and many lower courts have so concluded. Albright v. Oliver, 510 U.S. 266, 271, 114 S. Ct. 807, 127 L. Ed. 2d 114 (1994) (plurality opinion) (holding arrestee’s “surrender to the State’s show of authority constituted a seizure for purposes of the Fourth Amendment”); id. at 276 (Ginsburg, J., concurring) (“Albright’s submission to arrest unquestionably constituted a seizure for purposes of the Fourth Amendment.”); id. at 289 (Souter, J., concurring in judgment) (noting the “Fourth Amendment seizure that followed when [Albright] surrendered himself into police custody”); see also, e.g., Whiting v. Traylor, 85 F.3d 581, 585 n.6 (11th Cir. 1996) (holding surrender in response to arrest warrant was a “seizure”); Caldwell v. Jones, 513 F. Supp. 2d 1000, 1009 (N.D. Ind. 2007) (“Numerous cases have held that voluntary surrender in response to an arrest warrant is the equivalent of a seizure under the Fourth Amendment.”).
I'm just defining what an arrest is. I'm not sure where you are getting your info from though.
@PersonMan0326 FOX 7 from Austin LMAO 😂
@Blomfilter they cite this blog (https://prisonprofessors.com/what-happens-after-an-indictment/) to say, "experts say an arrest isn't necessary,"
But that blog doesn't say that at all. The blog says:
"Specifically, after obtaining an indictment, prosecutors obtain an arrest warrant. The arrest warrant names the person prosecutors want to arrest and specifies a place and time for the arrest. It also lists the crimes alleged against the target of the arrest warrant.
For prosecutors, taking a defendant into custody as soon as possible after the indictment is vital to prevent possible leaks of information. Some defendants will try to hide from the police once they learn a warrant is out for their arrest
In certain white-collar and other cases, prosecutors may offer a defendant who has already retained counsel before the indictment the opportunity to turn themselves over to the police voluntarily for processing, thus avoiding the need for law enforcement to bring them into custody."
That doesn't mean it's not an arrest, it just means it doesn't require the police to force them into custody. They will still be taken into custody however, and that is an arrest.
Bad Fox. Bad reference. Bad due diligence.
Manifold going to be like: "You lost 4k mana, but you outperformed two others!!!"
@AlexRockwell I guess I knew it was coming. Had just been hoping the probabilities would drop back down and I could sell at less of a loss.
Same, I've been reducing my position for days, got it about halfway closed and then the indictment came.
@johnleoks does this count as an "arrest" by OP's standards?
@PunishedFurry Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.
@PunishedFurry Probably not, but it's a matter of time.
@PunishedFurry Not yet. He’s not in police custody.
There are several things that could still happen to prevent that from occurring. He could flee the country. There could be many different things that would keep him from living long enough to be arrested. At this point it looks probable, but nothing is guaranteed until it has happened.
@Dustin he could pull out his pocket pardon!
So... what are they waiting for?
@PunishedFurry I think a couple of them are Manifold users
Bad news for the campaign contributions case? https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-2018-letter-states-michael-cohen-paid-stormy-daniels-with-his-own-funds-trump-did-not-reimburse
@brp I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says Hey this wasent campaign finance because I paid it myself. It would probably be more proof of trying to cover it up, at the time. Since this letter Cohen flipped and now is saying he did get reimbursed through back channels afaik Cohen will have to show that he actually was getting the money he claims he did.
Beneath a blaring azure sky, A caricature abides by chance, Amidst cacophony, bravely cries, "Can accusation alter stance?"
Accusers, brazen, congregate, Bearing banners, collective cheer, A boisterous crowd anticipates, Beneath calm, an approaching jeer.
Allegations breach barricades, A barrage, chaotic, boundless claims, Besmirched character's cavalcade,
Boldly, "Trump!" they chant with flames.
Awaiting balance, courts convene, Bound by codes, a cautious call, As charges clamor, controversy seen, Behind closed curtains, they befall.
Convicted or cleared, ambiguity stays, A blurred conclusion befalls his fate, Yet bickering and banter convey,
Celebrated chaos Trump's name creates.
Overheard in ChatGPT
A bellowing cacophony denouncing eager foes, Gathering hope, incessant jests kindle lively moans. Never outright prosecuted, quiet restlessness stirs, The ubiquitous verdict waits, xenophobic yearnings churn.
Zealots' anticipation, bated, craving delayed eons, For grandiose happenstance, in judgment's keenest looms. Malignant narratives, obscured, persistently query strife, The unending vexation wanes, xerophytic youth's device.
Zephyrs abate, bewildering chimeras dissolve ethereal. Forlorn, gazing heavenward, invoking justice's seal, Muted, nigh onerous, provoking quiescent thought, Undaunted, vying with xenogeneic yesteryear's fraught.
Zestful and boisterous, calamity's dithering end, Furtive glimmers, harboring inklings, jocose ken. Masterfully navigating opaque political quagmires, Trump's unyielding venture weathers xystic, yearning mires.
Why is everyone selling off?
@PunishedFurry Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't going anywhere.
@PunishedFurry Because it looks like he'll surrender rather than be arrested.
@belikewater Surrender into custody counts as arrest, see previous comments.
Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:
@jack Really??? I sold off all my shares in this because I thought that was the point, that surrender wouldn't count. Ugh.
@belikewater You gotta read the comments
It's unfortunate, I wish there was a way to surface important stuff like this that really shouldn't be buried in the comments. At least at some point the author did add it to the market description.
It's interesting, I thought voluntarily surrendering (and having your mug shot taken etc) did colloquially count as being under arrest, but seems like people's understanding of the word was split. The legal definition seems to clearly include voluntary surrender though.
@jack Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information given by the seller is incomplete, there's a definitive place to go for clarification. Ideally the description should always be sufficient, but there'll always be need for clarification, so maybe there should be a separate section where people can ask questions about resolution?
@jack On the other hand, a comment section works >90% of the time and imprecise question-askers will get less activity over time, so maybe it'll just come out in the current system's wash.
The orange man in power
Thinks he's above the law tower
But karma's a bitch
And jail time may be his hitch
The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order executing!
New York state law for reference: https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php
Following an arrest, or following the arraignment upon a local
criminal court accusatory instrument of a defendant whose court
attendance has been secured by a summons or an appearance ticket under
circumstances described in sections 130.60 and 150.70, the arresting or
other appropriate police officer or agency must take or cause to be
taken fingerprints of the arrested person or defendant...
So, legally there is a possibility of arraignment without arrest, although functionally and procedurally they are very similar, they follow the same rules about fingerprinting etc.
Here's an article about it: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-indictment-ny-what-to-expect-2023-3
Trump could be arraigned without ever spending a moment in custody, according to a former top prosecutor in the office of the previous Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance.
"Instead, the court could issue him a criminal summons," an order directing him to appear for arraignment, they said. "He would appear in court and then get printed before or after. No cuffs."
So, I think it would be reasonable to go with the legal definition of arrest, or to go with the earlier definition "If he is booked, this will resolve YES" given the two are very similar and basically go together. Need to decide on one or the other though (or I suppose you could count the case where he is booked but not technically arrested as 50-50).
FWIW before this research I had understood arrest to colloquially include voluntary surrender into police custody. I hadn't been aware that it was possible to be arraigned without entering custody though.
@jack under the legal definition of arrest, it will almost certainly resolve YES, as any sufficient restriction of movement and control over a suspect is technically an arrest, regardless of booking/charges/handcuffs/sirens.
If a suspect is booked, they are always "under arrest," as the deprivation of freedom is sufficient.
If he is only issued a summons by officers, and then they leave, and he shows up on his arraignment, that would be the only way you'd have no arrest with charges filed.
But, it's important to note he could be legally arrested after his arraignment as well, or at any point before 2024 for a YES.
@Dustin Id strongly encourage you learn from the mistakes I made in my Texas outages market. You should either pass the resolution responsibility to a non-invested 3rd party, or resolve to N/A. Because a lot of people fell screwed over by the fact you can/have bended the interpretation of “arrested” in favor of your large position. Either way I’ve sold my stake as I don’t want to be involved in another semantics fight.
Dustin gave a definition that seems reasonably clear very early on. I think it's best to just stick with it, unless there's a strong reason not to.
@jack where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves
Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like @Dustin has around half his portfolio value in Yes right now and stands to gain a lot from this resolution. I don't think it's healthy to have him resolving the market in that state of affairs for something that isn't objective.
This would encourage people to make unclear markets.
If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.
Is "booked" a synonym for indicted?
If so, it's still not entirely clear to me whether this would resolve "no" in the case of indictment without him actually being taken into custody
Booking is the process where information about a criminal suspect is entered into the system of a police station or jail after that person's arrest.
I desperately want this to resolve "NO" (at least as far as the currently-trending possible charges are concerned -- if you don't want a mudfight, don't push the pig in the mud), but even still I see it as at least 50-50 there is an indictment that triggers this.
From USA Today
"An indictment is not the same as an arrest; it's a formal charge of a crime, while an arrest is when a person is taken into custody. An arrest of Trump is not likely, said former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti."
@Firechyld Creator of the market said they would treat them the same for purposes of resolution.
I disagree with this decision, but what can you do?
I hadn't realised this and now regret betting.
@JamesSully Yeah, I think a lot of people would not have bet if the creator was upfront about his liberal use of the word.
@Firechyld Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭
I think when someone voluntarily surrenders, that is being taken into custody.
@Firechyld I think it's fine if you clarify the criteria relatively early on, which he did. It would have been better to have that clarification in the description sooner though.
@Firechyld What is liberal and unethical about using a legal term correctly, and what definition do you feel is more correct? Can you send me a link to somewhere it is accurately defined in terms that you feel are correct?
I’m being honest with these questions. If you have an authoritative source for the definition of arrest as it applies in New York, Florida, and Georgia, I’m open to input.
There seems to be confusion under the definition of arrest. If I would have known that there was so much confusion, I probably would have phrased it “in custody” or “booked” or something else. I don’t feel using the term accurately is a “gotcha”.
@Dustin I like your reasoning of going by the state norms. Or federal in that case. Do you think Steve Bannon was arrested in NY? Cause that is a good way to think about it too.
@BTE I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m going to do my best to be fair and informed on this, and won’t rush to resolve it until we have clarity on things.
Lots of people are invested and I will take the resolution seriously, even if ultimately it’s not to my personal benefit.
@Dustin He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as a proxy for this one.
@Dustin Actually that was a state case brought by the AG. This one is in Manhattan district.
@Dustin Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or something. Who knows one??
The primary definition of "arrest" in Merriam Webster is
to take or keep in custody by authority of law"
which is satisfied by being kept in custody between surrendering and being released.
Whereas Cambridge Dictionary says
If the police arrest someone, they take him or her away to ask him or her about a crime that he or she might have committed:
When the definition of a word in a question is ambiguous I think we have to go by the market creator's intended meaning, which we have.
@MartinRandall and yet, we have a former federal prosecutor saying an indictment and an arrest are not the same thing. So just getting these changes and showing up in court does not mean an actual arrest happened.
It is true that an indictment is not an arrest, they are different things. That is completely unrelated from the statement that surrendering into police custody is an arrest.
You can also be arrested without being indicted.
@Dustin He could go to the police station with his lawyer, get charges, and show up in court and never be in the custody of anyone in the police force.
My problem is I feel like you're saying if he gets charges at all, it will resolve to YES. I see other comments saying similar things about charges vs arrest.
Thank you for your response. I can tell you are being good faith in your response and I appreciate your openness to consider the confusion in your decision making.
@Firechyld If he went to the police station, was booked, and then on the way from there to the court he tried to make a run for it, I don't see him getting very far. Maybe he would technically be in the custody of the secret service instead of the police??
Maybe someone can make the Trump: Fugitive movie when things are calmer.
@Firechyld Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to legal or common law term of the word “city” and was a large (the largest?) holder... I ended up passing the resolution decision to a non-invested third party (@jack). Even though I was staunchly a believer that common law language should be applied. If there’s a large enough dispute between all parties involved, I think the market should either be passed to a neutral 3rd party, or Resolve N/A. (Both of which happened in my case 😅 )
When two definitions are equally reasonable I think a 50% resolution is fair, which is equivalent to tossing a coin to see which one to use.
But if the creator has already made a ruling, stare decisis increases predictability for bettors.
@BTE I’m trying to piece together timelines, didn’t realize Bannon was arrested so often. I searched and found 3 sources mentioning that he had been arrested, using that exact term. Some also mentioned he was in police custody.
3 separate media reports, with different authors, all say he was arrested in August of 2020. This would be enough to resolve YES that he was arrested at that time.
Your thoughts on if that’s enough evidence to be objective in this hypothetical?
@Dustin Haha, you missed one arrest last September which is the one I was actually thinking of since it was also in New York. But yes I think it's both enough evidence and likely the be the way Trump's issue is described in the media.
@Dustin whatever you do, please treat @PhatFree 's market /PhatFree/will-texas-have-blackouts-this-wint as an example of how NOT to handle this kind of situation.
@xyz Not sure about "The arrest secures the nomination for Donald Trump", so let's see:
@NcyRocks given a 72% chance of n/a, is expect the second one to stay closer to 50% regardless.
@MartinRandall True. Still waiting for proper conditional markets where you can bet the same amount on both conditions.
Bought NO and then sold again when I scrolled down far enough in the comments to realize that "arrested" doesn't mean "arrested". If you're going to use non-standard definitions of words, maybe put that in the description?
@PeterBorah wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find
@higherLEVELING This one: https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor#Es75maXEvK8WMDnDEiza
Apparently it means Trump being "booked", whether as a result of being arrested or as a result of surrendering.
I'm not sure, but from some googling I see that voluntary surrender is typically also considered arrest, legally speaking.
Does the act of accepting into custody someone who voluntarily surrenders under an arrest warrant constitute an arrest?
Yes. A reasonable person who voluntarily surrenders, knowing that a warrant exists for his or her arrest, would not feel free to leave police presence. The acceptance of that surrender would thus constitute an arrest for purposes of the Fourth Amendment.
@PeterBorah I think booked is synonymous with the word caught... So i think it works out the same trump being booked/caught/arrested
@jack Interesting! Thanks for that.
Not sure 4th amendment jurisprudence captures the way the words are normally used, but that does make it substantially more ambiguous.
@PeterBorah yeah, this use of the word arrested here is not the way it is used colloquially.
TBH, I have been arrested several times. If I had just been brought to the station and handed some papers stating what I was being charged with, I would not call that being arrested, I would call that legal trouble lol
@Firechyld Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as "Have you ever been under arrest?"
Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?
Answer from market creator:
If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.
I agree, such clarifications should be put in the description, not left buried in the comments.
@ForrestTaylor again, that's a "technical term" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.
@ForrestTaylor "Experts say Trump arrest unlikely An indictment is not the same as an arrest; it's a formal charge of a crime, while an arrest is when a person is taken into custody. An arrest of Trump is not likely, said former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti."
@Firechyld "If I had just been brought to the station and handed some papers stating what I was being charged with, I would not call that being arrested, I would call that legal trouble lol"
in your example, are you free to leave or not, that would be an indication if that were under arrest... are you in custody of the law..