Will Donald Trump be arrested before 2024?
2024
92%
chance

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024

Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful too.

In most states, being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody. I suspect that once we know which state indictments occur in, we'll have more detail on the process in scope.

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lnlytwn avatar
lnlytwnbought Ṁ206 of NO

Just put another 200 down on NO. My portfolio after Trump SPONTANEOUSLY COMBUSTS before the officers can get the cuffs on:

Thanks for the money YES bettors :) ❤

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 95%

"said he likely will be arraigned next week. The indictment has been filed under seal and will be announced in the coming days. Charges are not publicly known at this time, one source told CNN."

Looks like no arrest and straight to the judge.

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting YES at 90%

@Firechyld I read that he's expected to surrender himself to authorities prior to his arraignment.

That would be an arrest. Just a voluntary arrest.

He could also be arrested after his arraignment, or at any later point. It's just about whether he is subject to their custody and has no sufficient control over his own movement.

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilteris predicting NO at 93%

@PersonMan0326

"Another major step after a grand jury indictment is the defendant’s arrest. An arrest is when an individual has been taken into custody for suspicion of committing a criminal act.

In certain cases, prosecutors may offer a defendant who already has legal counsel prior to the indictment an opportunity to turn themselves over to the police voluntarily for processing, experts say.

Trump's aides and legal team have been preparing for the possibility of an indictment. Should that happen, he would be arrested only if he refused to surrender. 

Trump’s lawyers have previously said he would follow normal procedure, meaning he would likely agree to surrender at a New York Police Department precinct or directly to Bragg’s office.

"

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting YES at 89%

@Blomfilter Although we have not located any Washington cases directly addressing whether accepting into custody a person who voluntarily surrenders is an arrest, the United States Supreme Court and many lower courts have so concluded. Albright v. Oliver, 510 U.S. 266, 271, 114 S. Ct. 807, 127 L. Ed. 2d 114 (1994) (plurality opinion) (holding arrestee’s “surrender to the State’s show of authority constituted a seizure for purposes of the Fourth Amendment”); id. at 276 (Ginsburg, J., concurring) (“Albright’s submission to arrest unquestionably constituted a seizure for purposes of the Fourth Amendment.”); id. at 289 (Souter, J., concurring in judgment) (noting the “Fourth Amendment seizure that followed when [Albright] surrendered himself into police custody”); see also, e.g., Whiting v. Traylor, 85 F.3d 581, 585 n.6 (11th Cir. 1996) (holding surrender in response to arrest warrant was a “seizure”); Caldwell v. Jones, 513 F. Supp. 2d 1000, 1009 (N.D. Ind. 2007) (“Numerous cases have held that voluntary surrender in response to an arrest warrant is the equivalent of a seizure under the Fourth Amendment.”).

https://www.atg.wa.gov/ago-opinions/accepting-custody-person-who-voluntarily-surrenders-arrest-warrant#:~:text=Therefore%2C%20accepting%20a%20voluntary%20surrender,purposes%20of%20the%20Fourth%20Amendment.

I'm just defining what an arrest is. I'm not sure where you are getting your info from though.

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManis predicting YES at 89%

@Blomfilter they cite this blog (https://prisonprofessors.com/what-happens-after-an-indictment/) to say, "experts say an arrest isn't necessary,"

But that blog doesn't say that at all. The blog says:

"Specifically, after obtaining an indictment, prosecutors obtain an arrest warrant. The arrest warrant names the person prosecutors want to arrest and specifies a place and time for the arrest. It also lists the crimes alleged against the target of the arrest warrant.

For prosecutors, taking a defendant into custody as soon as possible after the indictment is vital to prevent possible leaks of information. Some defendants will try to hide from the police once they learn a warrant is out for their arrest

In certain white-collar and other cases, prosecutors may offer a defendant who has already retained counsel before the indictment the opportunity to turn themselves over to the police voluntarily for processing, thus avoiding the need for law enforcement to bring them into custody."

That doesn't mean it's not an arrest, it just means it doesn't require the police to force them into custody. They will still be taken into custody however, and that is an arrest.

Bad Fox. Bad reference. Bad due diligence.

AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwellsold Ṁ226 of NO

Manifold going to be like: "You lost 4k mana, but you outperformed two others!!!"

LucaMasters avatar
Luca Mastersis predicting NO at 89%

@AlexRockwell I guess I knew it was coming. Had just been hoping the probabilities would drop back down and I could sell at less of a loss.

AlexRockwell avatar
Alex Rockwell

Same, I've been reducing my position for days, got it about halfway closed and then the indictment came.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 91%
PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furryis predicting NO at 89%

@johnleoks does this count as an "arrest" by OP's standards?

RJPerez avatar
RJ Perezbought Ṁ100 of YES

@PunishedFurry Probably not this. However, an arrest seems likely to follow soon after, which would probably qualify.

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 91%

@PunishedFurry Probably not, but it's a matter of time.

Dustin avatar
Dustinis predicting YES at 87%

@PunishedFurry Not yet. He’s not in police custody.

There are several things that could still happen to prevent that from occurring. He could flee the country. There could be many different things that would keep him from living long enough to be arrested. At this point it looks probable, but nothing is guaranteed until it has happened.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallbought Ṁ1,389 of YES

@Dustin he could pull out his pocket pardon!

/MartinRandall/donald-trump-gets-pardoned-or-grant

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furryis predicting NO at 71%

So... what are they waiting for?

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Tayloris predicting YES at 70%

@PunishedFurry I think a couple of them are Manifold users

QuinnTheElder avatar
Quinn The Elderis predicting YES at 70%

@brp I doubt it, without looking to deep into it the letter is from when Cohen was still Trumps lawyer. The letter just says Hey this wasent campaign finance because I paid it myself. It would probably be more proof of trying to cover it up, at the time. Since this letter Cohen flipped and now is saying he did get reimbursed through back channels afaik Cohen will have to show that he actually was getting the money he claims he did.

marketman avatar
marketmanis predicting NO at 72%

ah shit

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

🤔

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Accusers, brazen, congregate, Bearing banners, collective cheer, A boisterous crowd anticipates, Beneath calm, an approaching jeer.

Allegations breach barricades, A barrage, chaotic, boundless claims, Besmirched character's cavalcade,

Boldly, "Trump!" they chant with flames.

Awaiting balance, courts convene, Bound by codes, a cautious call, As charges clamor, controversy seen, Behind closed curtains, they befall.

Convicted or cleared, ambiguity stays, A blurred conclusion befalls his fate, Yet bickering and banter convey,

Celebrated chaos Trump's name creates.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacasting

Overheard in ChatGPT

A bellowing cacophony denouncing eager foes, Gathering hope, incessant jests kindle lively moans. Never outright prosecuted, quiet restlessness stirs, The ubiquitous verdict waits, xenophobic yearnings churn.

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Zestful and boisterous, calamity's dithering end, Furtive glimmers, harboring inklings, jocose ken. Masterfully navigating opaque political quagmires, Trump's unyielding venture weathers xystic, yearning mires.

PunishedFurry avatar
Punished Furryis predicting NO at 72%

Why is everyone selling off?

johnleoks avatar
johnleoksis predicting YES at 70%

@PunishedFurry Panic selling because of the cancelled grand jury meeting. Don't worry there's a whole 9 months left. Donnie boy ain't going anywhere.

belikewater avatar
belikewater

@PunishedFurry Because it looks like he'll surrender rather than be arrested.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 70%

@belikewater Surrender into custody counts as arrest, see previous comments.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 70%

Also if people want to bet on whether he'll surrender:

belikewater avatar
belikewater

@jack Really??? I sold off all my shares in this because I thought that was the point, that surrender wouldn't count. Ugh.

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Tayloris predicting YES at 74%

@belikewater You gotta read the comments

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 73%

It's unfortunate, I wish there was a way to surface important stuff like this that really shouldn't be buried in the comments. At least at some point the author did add it to the market description.

It's interesting, I thought voluntarily surrendering (and having your mug shot taken etc) did colloquially count as being under arrest, but seems like people's understanding of the word was split. The legal definition seems to clearly include voluntary surrender though.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 73%

@jack Makes me think of how Amazon has different sections for product reviews vs questions about products; if the information given by the seller is incomplete, there's a definitive place to go for clarification. Ideally the description should always be sufficient, but there'll always be need for clarification, so maybe there should be a separate section where people can ask questions about resolution?

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 73%

@jack On the other hand, a comment section works >90% of the time and imprecise question-askers will get less activity over time, so maybe it'll just come out in the current system's wash.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 73%

@NcyRocks I've suggested something where the community can collectively surface important context/clarifications/questions to the top, I think that would be useful for many reasons.

Mason avatar
GPT-PBot

The orange man in power
Thinks he's above the law tower
But karma's a bitch
And jail time may be his hitch

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardssold Ṁ764 of YES

The liquidity in this market is awesome. Selling M$1000 without moving the probability is more fun than a limit order executing!

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Raybought Ṁ106 of YES

related:

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 73%

New York state law for reference: https://ypdcrime.com/cpl/article160.php

Following an arrest, or following the arraignment upon a local

criminal court accusatory instrument of a defendant whose court

attendance has been secured by a summons or an appearance ticket under

circumstances described in sections 130.60 and 150.70, the arresting or

other appropriate police officer or agency must take or cause to be

taken fingerprints of the arrested person or defendant...

So, legally there is a possibility of arraignment without arrest, although functionally and procedurally they are very similar, they follow the same rules about fingerprinting etc.

Here's an article about it: https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-indictment-ny-what-to-expect-2023-3

Trump could be arraigned without ever spending a moment in custody, according to a former top prosecutor in the office of the previous Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus Vance.

"Instead, the court could issue him a criminal summons," an order directing him to appear for arraignment, they said. "He would appear in court and then get printed before or after. No cuffs." 

So, I think it would be reasonable to go with the legal definition of arrest, or to go with the earlier definition "If he is booked, this will resolve YES" given the two are very similar and basically go together. Need to decide on one or the other though (or I suppose you could count the case where he is booked but not technically arrested as 50-50).

FWIW before this research I had understood arrest to colloquially include voluntary surrender into police custody. I hadn't been aware that it was possible to be arraigned without entering custody though.

PersonMan0326 avatar
PersonManbought Ṁ100 of YES

@jack under the legal definition of arrest, it will almost certainly resolve YES, as any sufficient restriction of movement and control over a suspect is technically an arrest, regardless of booking/charges/handcuffs/sirens.

If a suspect is booked, they are always "under arrest," as the deprivation of freedom is sufficient.

If he is only issued a summons by officers, and then they leave, and he shows up on his arraignment, that would be the only way you'd have no arrest with charges filed.

But, it's important to note he could be legally arrested after his arraignment as well, or at any point before 2024 for a YES.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.sold Ṁ9 of NO

@Dustin Id strongly encourage you learn from the mistakes I made in my Texas outages market. You should either pass the resolution responsibility to a non-invested 3rd party, or resolve to N/A. Because a lot of people fell screwed over by the fact you can/have bended the interpretation of “arrested” in favor of your large position. Either way I’ve sold my stake as I don’t want to be involved in another semantics fight.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 73%

Dustin gave a definition that seems reasonably clear very early on. I think it's best to just stick with it, unless there's a strong reason not to.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchis predicting NO at 73%

@jack where is this definition? I clearly seem to have missed something based on the market moves

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchis predicting NO at 73%

Also, for anything subjective, people should not accumulate positions. It looks like @Dustin has around half his portfolio value in Yes right now and stands to gain a lot from this resolution. I don't think it's healthy to have him resolving the market in that state of affairs for something that isn't objective.

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchis predicting NO at 73%

This would encourage people to make unclear markets.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 73%

https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor#Es75maXEvK8WMDnDEiza

If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.

From January

JamesSully avatar
James Sully

Is "booked" a synonym for indicted?

JamesSully avatar
James Sully

If so, it's still not entirely clear to me whether this would resolve "no" in the case of indictment without him actually being taken into custody

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 79%

Booking is the process where information about a criminal suspect is entered into the system of a police station or jail after that person's arrest.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/booking

AlexPower avatar
Alex Powerbought Ṁ200 of NO

I desperately want this to resolve "NO" (at least as far as the currently-trending possible charges are concerned -- if you don't want a mudfight, don't push the pig in the mud), but even still I see it as at least 50-50 there is an indictment that triggers this.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 83%

From USA Today

"An indictment is not the same as an arrest; it's a formal charge of a crime, while an arrest is when a person is taken into custody. An arrest of Trump is not likely, said former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti."

JamesSully avatar
James Sully

@Firechyld Creator of the market said they would treat them the same for purposes of resolution.
https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor#Es75maXEvK8WMDnDEiza
I disagree with this decision, but what can you do?
I hadn't realised this and now regret betting.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 74%

@JamesSully Yeah, I think a lot of people would not have bet if the creator was upfront about his liberal use of the word.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.is predicting NO at 74%

@Firechyld Definitely would not have bet. Common language arrest means taken into custody. I want my mana back 😭

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 74%

@PhatFree also, serious question here, what are the ethics of using such a liberal terms(that will most definitely mean the outcome is more certain) when you. As the creator, also have over 8k invested in the market?

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ500 of YES

I think when someone voluntarily surrenders, that is being taken into custody.

JamesSully avatar
James Sully

@Firechyld I think it's fine if you clarify the criteria relatively early on, which he did. It would have been better to have that clarification in the description sooner though.

Dustin avatar
Dustinis predicting YES at 73%

@Firechyld What is liberal and unethical about using a legal term correctly, and what definition do you feel is more correct? Can you send me a link to somewhere it is accurately defined in terms that you feel are correct?

I’m being honest with these questions. If you have an authoritative source for the definition of arrest as it applies in New York, Florida, and Georgia, I’m open to input.

There seems to be confusion under the definition of arrest. If I would have known that there was so much confusion, I probably would have phrased it “in custody” or “booked” or something else. I don’t feel using the term accurately is a “gotcha”.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 71%

@Dustin I like your reasoning of going by the state norms. Or federal in that case. Do you think Steve Bannon was arrested in NY? Cause that is a good way to think about it too.

Dustin avatar
Dustinis predicting YES at 71%

@BTE I will need to study a bit on the Steve Bannon situation before I answer, do you have anything I should read on it? I’m going to do my best to be fair and informed on this, and won’t rush to resolve it until we have clarity on things.

Lots of people are invested and I will take the resolution seriously, even if ultimately it’s not to my personal benefit.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 71%

@Dustin He was charged in the same district last year and turned himself in. So the way your look at that event could be used as a proxy for this one.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 71%

@Dustin Actually that was a state case brought by the AG. This one is in Manhattan district.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 71%

@Dustin Personally I think norms are more important than technical definitions. We should be asking an NYPD detective or something. Who knows one??

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 71%

The primary definition of "arrest" in Merriam Webster is

to take or keep in custody by authority of law"

which is satisfied by being kept in custody between surrendering and being released.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/arrest

Whereas Cambridge Dictionary says

If the police arrest someone, they take him or her away to ask him or her about a crime that he or she might have committed:

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/arrest

When the definition of a word in a question is ambiguous I think we have to go by the market creator's intended meaning, which we have.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 71%

@MartinRandall and yet, we have a former federal prosecutor saying an indictment and an arrest are not the same thing. So just getting these changes and showing up in court does not mean an actual arrest happened.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 71%

It is true that an indictment is not an arrest, they are different things. That is completely unrelated from the statement that surrendering into police custody is an arrest.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 71%

You can also be arrested without being indicted.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 71%

@Dustin He could go to the police station with his lawyer, get charges, and show up in court and never be in the custody of anyone in the police force.

My problem is I feel like you're saying if he gets charges at all, it will resolve to YES. I see other comments saying similar things about charges vs arrest.

Thank you for your response. I can tell you are being good faith in your response and I appreciate your openness to consider the confusion in your decision making.

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 74%

@Firechyld If he went to the police station, was booked, and then on the way from there to the court he tried to make a run for it, I don't see him getting very far. Maybe he would technically be in the custody of the secret service instead of the police??

Maybe someone can make the Trump: Fugitive movie when things are calmer.

PhatFree avatar
Jeff B.-K.is predicting NO at 72%

@Firechyld Full disclosure, I was in almost the exact same position. I had a market I created, the resolution criteria came down to legal or common law term of the word “city” and was a large (the largest?) holder... I ended up passing the resolution decision to a non-invested third party (@jack). Even though I was staunchly a believer that common law language should be applied. If there’s a large enough dispute between all parties involved, I think the market should either be passed to a neutral 3rd party, or Resolve N/A. (Both of which happened in my case 😅 )

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 72%

When two definitions are equally reasonable I think a 50% resolution is fair, which is equivalent to tossing a coin to see which one to use.

But if the creator has already made a ruling, stare decisis increases predictability for bettors.

Dustin avatar
Dustinis predicting YES at 76%

@BTE I’m trying to piece together timelines, didn’t realize Bannon was arrested so often. I searched and found 3 sources mentioning that he had been arrested, using that exact term. Some also mentioned he was in police custody.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/nyregion/steve-bannon-arrested-indicted.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/stephen-bannon-arrested-charged/2020/08/20/6d46847c-e2ea-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/05/25/steve-bannon-officially-cleared-of-federal-charges-after-trump-pardon---but-this-state-probe-still-looms/

3 separate media reports, with different authors, all say he was arrested in August of 2020. This would be enough to resolve YES that he was arrested at that time.

Your thoughts on if that’s enough evidence to be objective in this hypothetical?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 76%

@Dustin Haha, you missed one arrest last September which is the one I was actually thinking of since it was also in New York. But yes I think it's both enough evidence and likely the be the way Trump's issue is described in the media.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 69%

@PhatFree i think this would be a best case scenario. Its definitely a large point of contention and im just glad I didn't place any more bets before I realized he was considering an indictment an arrest.

Odoacre avatar
Odoacreis predicting YES at 69%

@Dustin whatever you do, please treat @PhatFree 's market /PhatFree/will-texas-have-blackouts-this-wint as an example of how NOT to handle this kind of situation.

xyz avatar
Yoav
NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 71%

@xyz Not sure about "The arrest secures the nomination for Donald Trump", so let's see:

MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randallis predicting YES at 74%

@NcyRocks given a 72% chance of n/a, is expect the second one to stay closer to 50% regardless.

NcyRocks avatar
N.C. Youngis predicting NO at 72%

@MartinRandall True. Still waiting for proper conditional markets where you can bet the same amount on both conditions.

BruceGrugett avatar
BCGis predicting NO at 79%

But will he be convicted?

PeterBorah avatar
PeterBorahbought Ṁ100 of NO

Bought NO and then sold again when I scrolled down far enough in the comments to realize that "arrested" doesn't mean "arrested". If you're going to use non-standard definitions of words, maybe put that in the description?

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGbought Ṁ10 of YES

@PeterBorah wait what the... what does arrested mean? which comment im trying to find

PeterBorah avatar
PeterBorah

@higherLEVELING This one: https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor#Es75maXEvK8WMDnDEiza

Apparently it means Trump being "booked", whether as a result of being arrested or as a result of surrendering.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ200 of YES

I'm not sure, but from some googling I see that voluntary surrender is typically also considered arrest, legally speaking.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting YES at 82%

https://www.atg.wa.gov/ago-opinions/accepting-custody-person-who-voluntarily-surrenders-arrest-warrant

Does the act of accepting into custody someone who voluntarily surrenders under an arrest warrant constitute an arrest?

Yes. A reasonable person who voluntarily surrenders, knowing that a warrant exists for his or her arrest, would not feel free to leave police presence. The acceptance of that surrender would thus constitute an arrest for purposes of the Fourth Amendment.

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 82%

@PeterBorah I think booked is synonymous with the word caught... So i think it works out the same trump being booked/caught/arrested

PeterBorah avatar
PeterBorah

@jack Interesting! Thanks for that.

Not sure 4th amendment jurisprudence captures the way the words are normally used, but that does make it substantially more ambiguous.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 79%

@PeterBorah yeah, this use of the word arrested here is not the way it is used colloquially.

TBH, I have been arrested several times. If I had just been brought to the station and handed some papers stating what I was being charged with, I would not call that being arrested, I would call that legal trouble lol

ForrestTaylor avatar
Forrest Tayloris predicting YES at 75%

@Firechyld Well, as a person who works with the sheriff's department, we definitely count that as "Have you ever been under arrest?"

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hankssold Ṁ146 of NO

@higherLEVELING

Question:

Say he is charged and reports to court for arraignment but is never handcuffed or confined involuntarily?

Answer from market creator:

If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.

LukeHanks avatar
Luke Hanks

I agree, such clarifications should be put in the description, not left buried in the comments.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 80%

@ForrestTaylor again, that's a "technical term" bc you actually work in the field. Its not how it is used colloquially.

Firechyld avatar
Firechyldis predicting NO at 83%

@ForrestTaylor "Experts say Trump arrest unlikely An indictment is not the same as an arrest; it's a formal charge of a crime, while an arrest is when a person is taken into custody. An arrest of Trump is not likely, said former federal prosecutor Renato Mariotti."

higherLEVELING avatar
higherLEVELINGis predicting YES at 78%

@Firechyld "If I had just been brought to the station and handed some papers stating what I was being charged with, I would not call that being arrested, I would call that legal trouble lol"

in your example, are you free to leave or not, that would be an indication if that were under arrest... are you in custody of the law..