MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnett
closes Jul 1
Will Robin Hanson publicly shorten his median human-level AI timeline to <2075 before July 1st 2023?

Robin Hanson has famously long AI timelines. For example in an interview from 2019, and more recently, a podcast, he seemed to argue that human-level AI is likely at least a century away. However, many are speculating that AI developments announced in early 2023 will be "wild" and will cause people to shorten their AI timelines.

This question resolves to YES if Robin Hanson publicly changes his mind before July 1st 2023, and clearly indicates that his median human-level AI timeline has moved to before 2075. Here is a non-exaustive list of example scenarios that would count towards positive resolution:

  • He releases a blog post indicating that he now expects robots to receive >50% of Gross World Product within 5 decades.

  • He says in a public talk published before July 1st that he now thinks ems will probably be invented in the 2060s.

  • He says in a podcast that he "now finds it very plausible" that the labor force participation rate will fall to <10% due to robots by 2050.

If it's ambiguous whether he's changed his mind, I'll tweet at him and ask. If he does not reply within roughly 2 weeks, the question will resolve to N/A. If he does not change his mind, this question resolves to NO.

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MatthewBarnett avatar
Matthew Barnettis predicting YES at 25%

The base rate of Robin Hanson changing his mind about AI is pretty low, but I tend to follow him pretty closely, and I get the sense that he's changing his mind right now. In early 2022, he was dismissing language models as mere "babblers". Now he's saying that GPT-line systems will be as big of a deal as airplanes. He also didn't want to take my bet with Bryan Caplan about AI progress recently, indicating that he now expects significant progress in the near future (he originally said he wanted to take the bet).