Will the Moscow stock market mostly re-open by the end of March 2022?
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Ṁ23Kresolved Apr 1
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Per https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/russia-keeps-stock-trading-closed-in-nation-s-longest-shutdown?sref=XTCfYPwP -
> The Russian stock market will be closed to trading until at least next Wednesday, marking a record in the country’s modern history, in a continuing bid to stave off the impact of global sanctions for domestic investors.
>
> The Moscow Exchange said on Friday that trading across all markets will be shut March 5, 7 and 8. Since the Moscow Exchange’s equity trading was last open a week ago, Russian stocks listed in London erased more than 90% of their value before getting suspended, global index providers announced plans to remove the nation’s shares from their indexes and European companies with business exposure to the country lost more than $100 billion in market value.
>
> ...
>
> While a rare occasion, countries have halted stock trading in the past due to unusual circumstances.
>
> The New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange and other bourses were shut in 2001 after the 9/11 attack. Trading in U.S. shares resumed after being closed for four trading days, with the S&P 500 slumping about 5%.
>
> Egypt’s stock exchange was closed for nearly two months in early 2011 amid protests that toppled President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year regime. The shutdown followed a drop of 16% in the nation’s equities in just two days. And when the index reopened, the selloff resumed and the index ended up 49% down for that year.
Mar 4, 6:08pm: Related market with "End of May 2022" deadline: https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-bdf45788c3cd
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Re: resolution criteria & defining "mostly open":
* artificially propping up the shares won't be counted against the market being considered open
* limits on foreigners making transactions are relevant
* limits on foreigners ultimately transferring money from market sales out of RU won't be counted against
* limits on certain shares from being traded are relevant
* limits on derivatives are relevant
Related metaculus market: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10192/moscow-stock-exchange-reopening/
For disclosure, my current payout if NO is M$245 and if YES is M$272.
Let me know if anyone else can think of things they'd like clarity on before the close date.
Same criteria will be used on https://manifold.markets/AndyMartin/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-bdf45788c3cd
I'm not sure this qualifies as "mostly open", particularly if the "15% of listed shares trading" stat quoted below is accurate and all foreigners are still banned.
> Restrictions on trade with foreigners and a ban on short selling remained in place on Thursday as the Moscow Exchange cautiously resumed equities trading.
https://www.reuters.com/business/rouble-recovers-further-jittery-stock-trading-resumes-after-month-long-hiatus-2022-03-24/
> Trading renewed for only 33 of the largest companies that make up the ruble-denominated MOEX Russia Index, which saw gains of 10% at opening but closed at 4.4%.
> ...
> Russia's Central Bank said Wednesday that trading would be limited to just over four hours and short selling would be banned in an effort to prevent speculative deals.
>
> Foreigners are not allowed to sell their shares, as part of measures taken by Russia to stem the flight of foreign currency and capital.
> ...
> "What we're seeing is a charade: a Potemkin market opening," U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh said in a statement Thursday.
>
> He said Russia will "only allow 15% of listed shares to trade."
>
> "Russia has made it clear they are going to pour government resources into artificially propping up the shares of companies that are trading," he added.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/24/moscow-stock-exchange-partially-reopens-after-one-month-closure-a77060
"❗️Russia’s stock market will be closed for the whole of next week, Central Bank announces. That’s until at least March 21. Shares last traded on Feb. 25."
https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1502681986007281664?s=20