Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?
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Meta AI recently achieved 90th percentile Diplomacy play (no restrictions afaict): https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/.
Within one year, will AI be superhuman at Diplomacy, which for the purposes of this market means an ELO rating corresponding to a 90% win rate against the best human players?
Nov 22, 11:51pm: Will AI for Diplomacy be superhuman by 2024? → Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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