Will the Future of Humanity Institute exist in 2030?
resolved Apr 19

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

@NathanpmYoung welcome your clarification around whether what no longer exists can exist once more (e.g. if re-instituted, or a new Bostrom-associated Future of Humanity Institute exists in 2030)

(If it can't, I guess this resolves no at this point?)

@CalebW I ran into this in a couple of markets. For my case, it does have a kernel of truth in it, but it also would delay NO resolutions even in cases where they seem strong, so I just end it.

@CalebW If the Uni of oxford brings them back I'd reresolve, if they spin out an org that is basically the same I'd have to think about it.

@NathanpmYoung there's also the argument from continuity. Imagine in a million years aliens resurrected every human. Would it makes sense to rereaolve all manifold death markets? I'm leaning NO

It’s permanently closed as of 16 April 2024

What counts as existing? Academic units can sometimes dwindle to a website plus a bunch of affiliate staff (who are paid entirely by other units) but basically no real activity.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

If it was founded in 2005 or ~18 years ago, and if I use a prior that it had a 50% chance to make it this long, that's like having an annual survival rate of 96.22%, since 0.96223 ^ 18 = ~0.5.

There are another 7 years to go. 0.96223 ^ 7 = 76.375% prior to survive until 2030.

Downgraded due to the recent scandal with Bostrom, which seems like a serious blow. Drops the prestige lots. I am not familiar with their funding situation. But I'd guess a 90% chance that one of the potential donors is willing to continue paying for FHI's continued research, or at least parts of it. 0.76375 * 0.9 = 68.7% chance to survive until 2030.