Background: Sometimes markets aren't liquid enough to place a significant bet. Like 50 mana (ie, 50 cents) is enough to move the price to my probability estimate and then there's nothing else to do despite much remaining disagreement. Sometimes I buy a bunch of both YES and NO to subsidize the market if I want to incentivize participation. But sometimes I'd like to just set an alert for myself, to be notified if the market probability leaves some range. (Or maybe limit orders are the more elegant way to deal with that? But I probably want to manually review why the price changed before deciding to move it again.) This resolves to YES iff there's a feature to either be alerted or to automatically trade when the market probability hits an amount that the user can specify. Mar 5, 3:24am: Or if there's some other way to know what markets are out of line with my own probability estimates. It need not involve alerts or limit orders. I now think the best solution is to let you log your own probabilities separate from making trades and then show you markets sorted by your own subjective expected profit.

Close date updated to 2022-08-06 11:59 pm