Will Manifold implement a feature to be alerted when a market probability hits some threshold?

Resolved

YES# 🏅 Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | Bionic | Ṁ26 |

2 | Nathan | Ṁ17 |

3 | Gabrielle | Ṁ12 |

4 | Peter Berggren | Ṁ8 |

5 | Gigacasting | Ṁ5 |

# 💬 Proven correct

Ooh, I think the feature I really want (and I'd probably resolve this to YES if it were implemented since it's solving the underlying problem) is a way to record my own subjective probability and then just sort the markets by expected profit. And of course you could use those subjective probabilities for all sorts of things, like making calibration graphs.
So it's not about alerts specifically, just about having some way to see markets that are or have become out of line with my own probability assessments. And maybe sometimes that will happen due to new information and that's fine, I can just update my probability assessment instead of moving the market probability.

# 💸 Best bet

A trader bought Ṁ50 YES at 50%

Daniel Reeves made Ṁ23!

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PS: I see that I said "This resolves to YES iff there's a feature to either be alerted or to automatically trade when the market probability hits an amount that the user can specify" so that sounds like YES, thanks to limit orders.

Best of both worlds: it defaults to the implied probability, but you can manually change it if you want.

[oops, I lost my draft from earlier! starting over...]
Here's another idea that should resolve this to YES. Rather than an explicit additional field for your true probability, Manifold could just remember the last probability that you moved the market to. Then in the "Your trades" list, one of the options could be "expected profit" where it uses your own probability to compute how much profit you'll make in expectation, from your own perspective.
I think that may be the most elegant way to get what I'm really after. I think it's really valuable for traders and for markets in general to get you to come back and bet more when the market probability moves away from what you set it to. And from a trader's perspective, that's the most important criteria for what to bet more money on -- how much additional profit I expect to make.

Ooh, I think the feature I really want (and I'd probably resolve this to YES if it were implemented since it's solving the underlying problem) is a way to record my own subjective probability and then just sort the markets by expected profit. And of course you could use those subjective probabilities for all sorts of things, like making calibration graphs.
So it's not about alerts specifically, just about having some way to see markets that are or have become out of line with my own probability assessments. And maybe sometimes that will happen due to new information and that's fine, I can just update my probability assessment instead of moving the market probability.

I think some sort of filtration system would be cool to see markets that have a lot of cash available compared to # of bets (with some sort of formula for this), as some sort of proxy for how likely it is that I'll be able to capitalize on the market being wrong.

Peter Berggren

bought Ṁ200 YES from 93% to 97% Bionic

bought Ṁ100 YES from 83% to 93% Gigacasting

bought Ṁ25 YES from 76% to 83% Bionic

bought Ṁ30 YES from 49% to 76% wavedash

bought Ṁ30 NO from 89% to 49% Ian Philips

bought Ṁ10 YES from 88% to 89% A trader bought Ṁ10 NO from 93% to 88%

A trader bought Ṁ7 YES from 92% to 93%

A trader bought Ṁ10 NO from 97% to 92%

A trader sold Ṁ20 YES at 97%

A trader bought Ṁ200 YES from 90% to 97%

A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 88% to 90%

A trader sold Ṁ1 YES at 88%

A trader sold Ṁ1 YES at 88%

A trader sold Ṁ0 YES from 89% to 88%

A trader sold Ṁ21 YES from 91% to 89%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES at 91%

A trader bought Ṁ15 YES from 89% to 91%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES at 89%

A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 87% to 89%

A trader bought Ṁ30 YES from 81% to 87%

A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 81%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES at 79%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES from 78% to 79%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES at 78%

A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 71% to 78%

A trader bought Ṁ10 YES from 66% to 71%

A trader bought Ṁ1 YES from 65% to 66%

A trader bought Ṁ20 YES from 50% to 65%

A trader sold Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 50%

A trader bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 41%

YES shares

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