dreev avatar
resolved Jul 27
Will Manifold implement a feature to be alerted when a market probability hits some threshold?
Resolved
YES

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dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Ooh, I think the feature I really want (and I'd probably resolve this to YES if it were implemented since it's solving the underlying problem) is a way to record my own subjective probability and then just sort the markets by expected profit. And of course you could use those subjective probabilities for all sorts of things, like making calibration graphs. So it's not about alerts specifically, just about having some way to see markets that are or have become out of line with my own probability assessments. And maybe sometimes that will happen due to new information and that's fine, I can just update my probability assessment instead of moving the market probability.

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A trader bought Ṁ50 YES at 50%
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ian avatar
So does setting a limit order for M$1 at the prob you want to hear about qualify?
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
is predicting YES at 76%
@ian Good question. How do people think I should resolve this?
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
is predicting YES at 76%
PS: I see that I said "This resolves to YES iff there's a feature to either be alerted or to automatically trade when the market probability hits an amount that the user can specify" so that sounds like YES, thanks to limit orders.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Best of both worlds: it defaults to the implied probability, but you can manually change it if you want.
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
bought Ṁ1 of YES
[oops, I lost my draft from earlier! starting over...] Here's another idea that should resolve this to YES. Rather than an explicit additional field for your true probability, Manifold could just remember the last probability that you moved the market to. Then in the "Your trades" list, one of the options could be "expected profit" where it uses your own probability to compute how much profit you'll make in expectation, from your own perspective. I think that may be the most elegant way to get what I'm really after. I think it's really valuable for traders and for markets in general to get you to come back and bet more when the market probability moves away from what you set it to. And from a trader's perspective, that's the most important criteria for what to bet more money on -- how much additional profit I expect to make.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Yes. Yes. That feature would be awesome.
dreev avatar
Daniel Reeves
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Ooh, I think the feature I really want (and I'd probably resolve this to YES if it were implemented since it's solving the underlying problem) is a way to record my own subjective probability and then just sort the markets by expected profit. And of course you could use those subjective probabilities for all sorts of things, like making calibration graphs. So it's not about alerts specifically, just about having some way to see markets that are or have become out of line with my own probability assessments. And maybe sometimes that will happen due to new information and that's fine, I can just update my probability assessment instead of moving the market probability.
Conflux avatar
Conflux
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I think some sort of filtration system would be cool to see markets that have a lot of cash available compared to # of bets (with some sort of formula for this), as some sort of proxy for how likely it is that I'll be able to capitalize on the market being wrong.