A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count.
This is question #5 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
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This should be a bit higher, because there's no minimum time required, right? How long does it have to be to be "lasting"?
@BenjaminIkuta
> A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time.
and
> An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire.
@BenjaminIkuta I agree that would be kind of weird, and I assume it would not count, or they would wait a month to resolve or something like that.
@jskf It's worded as if to make that contrast between formal and informal, so that would be strange.
Amidst the conflict and strife,
A lasting peace seems out of life.
But hope remains, we must believe,
That in 2023, a cease-fire we'll receive.
Here Manifold roughly agrees and is at 24%, down several percent in the last few days which gives me pause about selling. As everyone digs in rhetorically and literally this does seem like it is getting less likely, and the criteria seems easy to not fulfil, but a year is a long time. I bought M10 of NO for tracking purposes.
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