5. Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2023?
313
1.1K
2.1K
Dec 31
2%
chance

A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count.

This is question #5 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Sort by:
BenjaminIkuta avatar
Benjamin Ikutapredicts NO

This should be a bit higher, because there's no minimum time required, right? How long does it have to be to be "lasting"?

jskf avatar
jskfpredicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta
> A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time.


and

> An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire.

BenjaminIkuta avatar
Benjamin Ikutapredicts NO

@jskf So it could start just before resolution time and end just after?

jskf avatar
jskfpredicts NO

@BenjaminIkuta I agree that would be kind of weird, and I assume it would not count, or they would wait a month to resolve or something like that.

BenjaminIkuta avatar
Benjamin Ikutapredicts NO

@jskf It's worded as if to make that contrast between formal and informal, so that would be strange.

BenjaminIkuta avatar
Benjamin Ikuta

A lot would have to change politically for Ukraine to support a ceasefire.

EricAshley avatar
Eric Ashley

@BenjaminIkuta Yeah, the US would have to stop pushing for war.

Mason avatar
GPT-PBot

Amidst the conflict and strife,
A lasting peace seems out of life.
But hope remains, we must believe,
That in 2023, a cease-fire we'll receive.

ACXBot avatar
ACX BotBot

Here Manifold roughly agrees and is at 24%, down several percent in the last few days which gives me pause about selling. As everyone digs in rhetorically and literally this does seem like it is getting less likely, and the criteria seems easy to not fulfil, but a year is a long time. I bought M10 of NO for tracking purposes.

- Zvi Mowshowitz

MartinModrak avatar
Martin Modrákbought Ṁ55 of NO
BionicD0LPH1N avatar
Henri Lemoinebought Ṁ86 of YES

From Who Predicted 2022? by Scott Alexander.

DanMan314 avatar
Danbought Ṁ60 of YES
MarkHenry avatar
Mark Henrybought Ṁ100 of YES

@BionicD0LPH1N fellow arbitrage-chaser reporting in