Will I get covid by mid-2023?
11%
chance

Or specifically, will I test positive for covid by the end of June 2023? (It doesn't count if I am confident that I have it, but fail to get a positive test throughout.)

I haven't had it to my knowledge so far this pandemic. I'm cautious relative to those around me, but 'those around me' are selected to be incautious. I currently think covid is worth substantially but not entirely avoiding. e.g. I try to see people outside, but occasionally go to indoor events with many people if it seems worth the risk. (This also functions as a 'change my mind' market—feel free to try to convince me to be incautious!) I'm unlikely to reduce testing much to win Ṁ. I'm susceptible to doing rash things for love, so this might be a market for 'how exciting will my romantic life be in the next seven months?'.

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DalibanAdjacent avatar

Do you keep Covid tests at home, and would you use one if you were pretty confident that you had Covid?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 11%

@DalibanAdjacent yes, I have both rapid tests and cue tests (which are to my knowledge much more sensitive). I often test when I think I have maybe a 1% chance of covid, and would definitely use one if I thought there was a >50% chance, unless I was somehow impeded (e.g. cue test reader broken, ran out of tests).

hamnox avatar
Em of the Night ☑️
bought Ṁ1 of YES

I believe you can do anything you put your mind to!

WilliamEhlhardt avatar

Have you gotten the bivalent booster?

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Grace
is predicting NO at 17%

@WilliamEhlhardt I'm pretty sure I have

ManifoldDream avatar

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