Or specifically, will I test positive for covid by the end of June 2023? (It doesn't count if I am confident that I have it, but fail to get a positive test throughout.)
I haven't had it to my knowledge so far this pandemic. I'm cautious relative to those around me, but 'those around me' are selected to be incautious. I currently think covid is worth substantially but not entirely avoiding. e.g. I try to see people outside, but occasionally go to indoor events with many people if it seems worth the risk. (This also functions as a 'change my mind' market—feel free to try to convince me to be incautious!) I'm unlikely to reduce testing much to win Ṁ. I'm susceptible to doing rash things for love, so this might be a market for 'how exciting will my romantic life be in the next seven months?'.
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Possibly ambiguous test: I had a rapid test I was sufficiently unsure about ('is that an extremely faint line? no?') to send a photo to someone else, who couldn't see a line. I decided it was negative. But hours later it seemed to have developed into an extremely faint line (still ambiguous, but I would have resolved pos if it looked like that earlier). Hours later line doesn't count as pos according to the test rules anyway, but makes me wonder if it was actually the weakest of positives earlier when I was uncertain. I then took a bunch more tests over the following days, which were all clearly neg.
I'm inclined to call this negative, since according to the rules of how to use tests (can you see a line with your eyes within the time window) it was, but tell me if you disagree. I'm invested int this market, so if there is disagreement, I think I should ask a third party to judge.
@KatjaGrace when I had covid, the faint lines on my lateral flow test didn't show up in pictures well, but were definitely visible IRL (under good lighting).
Is it possible to get a PCR test? There'd be a chance of detecting a recent infection with a more sensitive test.
(FWIW, I didn't have a position on this market when you made this comment, and bought yes after reading it).
@finnhambly I did four cue tests over the six days following, which I thought were a kind of PCR but maybe they are just also pretty accurate. It's been two weeks now, so probably too late to check better, apologies. (Pic from cue website.)
I looked a lot myself initially (I think including under various good lighting) and sent pic to friend to confirm because friend had been weirdly able to see very faint line in photo where I could not on a previous occasion.
@KatjaGrace That is an impressive level of testing! And I think you're right to not consider it a positive test result honestly
@finnhambly Yes. Even though I’m invested in YES, if you couldn’t detect even a faint line under good lighting within the prescribed timeframe it’s not a positive. (You might have been positive but you work with the evidence you have.)
@Alana but reputation will not be affected by not reporting a positive test or simply not testing. We'll never know. Though it can be positively affected by reporting one at the cost of one's own mana.
@NicoDelon I'm pretty averse to being unethical, for complicated reasons hopefully to do with ethics. You don't know if I'm lying about that, but I would guess a fairly small fraction of people would either consider such a lie to be ethical, or consider being unethical in such a circumstance to be worthwhile. There is probably some selection in people making markets like this for people who might exploit it by lying, but I doubt it's strong enough that you should expect me to not be pretty averse to lying.
@KatjaGrace That’s exactly what someone who would love to profit would say but I choose to trust you!
@KatjaGrace As long as you're trading only with the AMM, not other people on the order book, I think you're fine. Trading with the AMM (assuming you're the only funder) is just moving money from one pocket to another.
@KatjaGrace When you place quick orders (the default), you're usually buying/selling from the AMM. If there are open limit orders from other people on the book, you can see them by clicking the blue "Order book" button under the betting interface.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso Automated Market Maker, see e.g. https://www.coindesk.com/learn/what-is-an-automated-market-maker/
@DalibanAdjacent yes, I have both rapid tests and cue tests (which are to my knowledge much more sensitive). I often test when I think I have maybe a 1% chance of covid, and would definitely use one if I thought there was a >50% chance, unless I was somehow impeded (e.g. cue test reader broken, ran out of tests).