Will Russia and Ukraine still be at war on July 10?
39
45
Ṁ102
resolved Jul 10
Resolved
YES
Resolves yes if, on July 10, there is still ongoing fighting between Russian armed forces and Ukrainian armed forces, or if there was recent fighting, with widespread expectation of renewed fighting. A seemingly-stable ceasefire will result in the question resolving no, even if there is no formal peace treaty. If Ukraine capitulates to Russia, this question resolves no, even if there is an ongoing insurgency in Ukraine. Question inspired by reported DoD intent to supply Ukraine with anti-drone weapons within 120 days, seemingly implying that this would not be too late to make a difference. https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-pentagon-revives-team-speed-arms-ukraine-allies-sources-2022-03-11/ Mar 13, 1:54pm: I mean July 10, 2022. Mar 15, 7:48pm: If there is a peace agreement before July 10, but it is broken by July 10 and there is fighting on that date, this market resolves yes.
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bought Ṁ5 of NO
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bought Ṁ45 of NO
Initial talks have happened, proposals from both sides feel feasible for the other to accept, Russian negotiator called the talks "constructive," Putin and Zelensky to meet, and also their foreign ministers to meet: https://news.antiwar.com/2022/03/29/russia-says-it-will-drastically-reduce-military-activity-near-kyiv-and-chernihiv-as-talks-progress/. These talks could get bogged down and go nowhere, or maybe they're only happening so both sides can feel out what deal they're likely get IF they suddenly need to sue for peace, so some skepticism is warranted. In any case, I feel the recent news is compelling enough that I'm buying enough NO to move this market from 68% to 50%.
sold Ṁ1 of NO
July of 2022, I presume
bought Ṁ1 of YES
July 10th of what year?

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