This market resolves YES if Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco, 2600.HK)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.

Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.

Context. Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco). 2024 production ~6 Mt (+6.76% YoY); new Yunnan green smelter commissioned. The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 sits near 2027's run-rate; further commissioning announced for 2026–27 could lift 2028 above this strike, making this a probability-anchored at or slightly above 50%.

Resolution sources (priority order):

Chalco annual results announcement (HKEx 2600 / SSE 601600) https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/tzzgxen/yjbgen/

Chalco quarterly performance updates https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/

International Aluminium Institute (IAI) primary aluminum statistics https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/

Reuters / Bloomberg / Argus aluminum coverage for cross-validation

Related markets across the cluster (calendar year 2028)

Upstream supply:

• Indonesia primary aluminum production

• Indonesia alumina capacity

• China alumina production

• Guinea bauxite exports

Producers (CY2028):

• Alcoa

• Century

• EGA

• Hindalco

• Hongqiao

• Norsk Hydro

• Rio Tinto

• Rusal

• Vedanta

Electricity hubs (CY2028):

• MISO Indiana Hub

• Nord Pool

• OMIE Spain

• Vic NEM

• WA SWIS

Same market, other calendar year:

• Chalco CY2027