This market resolves YES if the sum of nameplate alumina refining capacity at Indonesian plants that have produced at least one tonne of alumina commercially exceeds 15 million tonnes per year as of December 31, 2027.
"Commissioned" is the gating qualifier: a refinery counts only after it has shipped first commercial alumina, not when its blueprints are approved or its equipment is installed. This makes the question resolvable on plant-completion evidence rather than on industry announcements.
Context. Indonesia banned raw bauxite exports in 2023 to drive domestic value-add, and the policy is pulling alumina-refinery construction forward. Existing commissioned capacity sits around 4-5 Mt/yr (Antam Mempawah, Inalum). Reaching 15 Mt/yr by end-2027 would require a meaningful cluster of new refineries to commission, including the Antam-Inalum-Hindalco Mempawah expansion, Bintan Alumina Indonesia Phase 2, and several Chinese-backed greenfield projects.
Resolution sources (priority order):
Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) refinery registry
International Aluminium Institute refinery database
CRU / Wood Mackenzie alumina capacity tracker (commissioned-only filter)
Company first-commercial-production announcements
1,000