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MANIFOLD
Will China's alumina production for calendar year 2027 exceed 85 million tonnes?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ105
2028
83%
chance

This market resolves YES if China's alumina (Al2O3) production for calendar year 2027 (January 1 - December 31, 2027) exceeds 85 million tonnes.

Settlement is March 31, 2028 — the close pushes ~3 months past year-end so that the December 2027 NBS monthly industrial output print (which publishes with a ~1-2 month lag) is available before resolution.

Context. China is the world's largest alumina producer, accounting for roughly 60% of global output. Annual production has run between 75-82 Mt over 2022-2024 and has tracked aluminium-smelter demand closely. Crossing 85 Mt for calendar 2027 would represent meaningful growth from current levels and require either capacity utilisation gains or additional refinery commissioning during 2026-2027.

Resolution sources (priority order):

  1. National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) monthly industrial output

  2. International Aluminium Institute (IAI) — world-aluminium.org

  3. Antaike / CNMIA aluminum industry statistics

  4. AlCircle.com production data

Market context
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