Resolution criteria

Alcoa's 2025 alumina segment production guidance is 9.5 to 9.7 million metric tons. This market resolves YES if Alcoa's reported 2026 full-year alumina segment production exceeds 9.5 million metric tons (9,500 kt). Resolution will be based on Alcoa's official earnings reports and SEC filings, specifically the full-year 2026 production figures disclosed in their Q4 2026 earnings release or annual 10-K filing. The market resolves NO if production is 9.5 Mt or below.

Background

Alcoa operates six refineries in Australia, Brazil and Spain with installed capacity of 17 million metric tons per year. The company announced permanent closure of its Kwinana refinery in Western Australia, with restructuring charges of approximately $890 million and cash outflows projected to reach around $600 million over the next six years. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in June 2024.

Considerations

The 9.5 Mt threshold is significant because it represents the lower bound of Alcoa's 2025 guidance. Whether 2026 production exceeds this level depends on whether the company can offset the Kwinana closure impact through optimization of remaining refineries and potential capacity increases at other facilities. San Ciprian smelter is expected to reach full capacity by mid-2026, which could support higher alumina demand but does not directly increase alumina production capacity.